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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KymarFye who wrote (62810)	11/19/2000 1:05:39 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

My guess is that a new leg down on the Comp to '98 levels would require further reinforcement of the bear case: Earnings warning season in a couple weeks might be a catalyst... re: NAZ 100... left shoulders - June thru October,1999 @ 2550 area head - April 2000 @ 4800 right shoulders - Aug.- Sept. 200 @ 4000 draw neckline from late May 99 lows to 2897 stockcharts.com[L,A]WACLYYMY[DE][PB50!B200!A2897!A2550!A2300!A1990!F][VC60][IUB14!LA8,17,9] longer term view = slippery slope and another bear rally, as per Securitytrader<ggg> Regards, John Madarasz

To: KymarFye who wrote (62810)	11/19/2000 1:38:37 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 99985

thanks for reply,and with this thought added,in the end,a speculator must be a futurist,he takes all the could bes maybes and all immediate data and then must step into the arena of what others would mistakenly call prophecy,but is really a projection of tendencies. throwing all the factors you mention into the hopper i come up with the image of the global economy skating on dangerously thin ice,and as i am not in California i see a bleak outcome:) Something George Soros said,has always stuck with me,and to paraphrase,he said don't get deep inside data,don't bury yourself in deep analysis,because then you get into a situation where you can't see the forest through the trees.Instead,stay on the top of the data,and get a feel for,the tendency of what is in consideration and project from that--and that is what i am trying to do(however amateurishly) BTW,Soros in late March said he thought we are in Bear market,but we haven't realized it yet,as we know that Soros has completely restructed his investment strategy from aggressive to conservative. The key element in this market,i feel,don't jump to interpreting shorterm rallies as a breaking in the bear case,the greatest bull market in history will inevitably die hard,as the bull mindset remains still at the level of Dogma,in my opinion.Max

To: KymarFye who wrote (62810)	11/19/2000 3:36:19 PM
From: TWICK	Respond to of 99985

KymarFye, Agree. Way to nice here in LA to contemplate a recession or doomsday. Have to take advantage of these smogless days, especially on a weekend. lol !! Twick

To: KymarFye who wrote (62810)	11/19/2000 6:22:09 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Its probably obvious too all, but thought I would point out that the Nasdaq can fall much lower with or without a 'valid' head and shoulders pattern being in place. Both the COMPX and NDX are hovering just above the lows of 2000, and at this time a lower swing low - 11/13 -- for the entire year is still in play. With such a situation in place, I suggest that while risks are present for either side of a trade, the situation is not long friendly. I see many posts all over SI talking about valuations, deeply oversold and such, but its my opinion that these concepts are being redefined on a daily basis and offer traders little guidance in this seemingly new market. Of greatest risk is that there are few guideposts for support below where the market currently resides. The first meaningful support for the NDX (after the 2742 low of 11/13)resides near 2550, over 500 points away. The COMPX, somewhat weaker, has support at 2890 and the 11/13 spike crossed that level at 2859. Traders will continue to watch these levels and are likely to take decisive action if they are touched repeatedly (a weakening scenario) or pierced. In the short term, we see on the chart a declining wedge pattern that is forming. A very long chart follows, if you run your monitor at 1600 * 1200 it will fit ;) intelligentspeculator.com The diabolical scenario would be a short-covering / long-fear-of-missing-the-train induced rally to one or more of the targets, and then the rug being pulled out by a lack of buyers and return of sellers due to some market or other news event. Between preannouncements, eco news, the election and things not yet considered, there are probably enough catalysts. Should the market manage to rally in the face of much bad news, then perhaps we will be looking at a bottom worth buying. But its a day by day market, and since there is a lower swing high and low still in place, the downtrend has to be presumed to be intact until proven otherwise. cheers mw