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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KymarFye who wrote (62842)	11/19/2000 11:39:01 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Respond to of 99985

What, I wonder, is your working definition, however provisional, of "this seemingly new market"? KymarFye, Darn it all, I knew I should have added some extra comment to remind all that I was being cynical or facetious, or at minimum critical of the prevailing sense that things are different. Sure, its different, its in a downtrend. Aside from that? All things remain the same. I don't think there is anything new under the sun when it comes to greed, fear, exhilaration, boredom etc. The efficient market/random walk folks will not count me in their numbers. Decisions and actions (or lack thereof) are taken by humans - humans are immensely complex and different creatures, all with their own tolerances, needs, fears and strengths. One mans poor performer is another womans bargain and all that. When the herd is all thinking alike, things move. They move with speed. Up. But often even faster down, since fear overtakes their greed. But a market can not move at high speed in one direction forever. People have doubts. "Has it run up too far? Come down too low?". Thanks to doubt, things pause. And during these periods, from time to time a concensus forms across a large enough set of market participants so that their combined will / action is enough to influence a market and drive it forward (or backward as the case may be). Detecting these periods of consolidation is very useful -- making a profit from the detection becomes a case of developing if/then/else trading scenarios. I should probably read and edit this, but its time for either wine or coffee and I must go decide! Cheers mw