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To: Sully- who wrote (427)	11/21/2000 3:09:56 PM
From: minorejoy2000	Respond to of 770

Read especially just under "the third wave", regarding gigabit Ethernet: (sorry I didn't know how to link to this) RHK sees explosive growth in bandwidth demand; New study forecasts "300-Fold" boom driven by high-speed Internet access, disruptive technologies & applications in the next 8-10 years NOV 21, 2000, M2 Communications - Boston, Mass. -- A new Internet study prepared by leading telecom analysts RHK for Nortel Networks* [NYSE/TSE:NT] indicates that the demand for bandwidth from global networks could soar 300-fold in the next 8 to 10 years. The boom in bandwidth demand will be driven by increased levels of high-speed Internet access to the home and business, dramatically growing Internet take-up rates outside of North America, and new disruptive technologies and applications that will take advantage of fast and cheap access to the network, the study says. "The current levels of investment in new networks worldwide will expand to meet coming demand for the Optical Internet," said John Ryan, principal analyst at RHK and chief author of the study. "The use of the Internet as a basic tool within the global economy suggests a larger role for telecom services and systems and revenue growth in all sectors. Clearly, the bandwidth capacity in place today is dwarfed by what we will need in a year or two, given the current rates of explosive growth we are seeing," Ryan added. The Third Wave The "third wave" of Internet access, which is what RHK calls the adoption of Ethernet-speed access in the home and gigabit Ethernet access for many enterprises and institutions, will drive even greater demand for bandwidth. An explosion in eBusiness and content management is likely to extend today's robust Internet traffic growth rate of 200 percent per annum well into the decade. This would take traffic to 300 times the size of today's Internet by the decade's end, RHK observes, consistent with the traffic growth called for by deployment of new-generation access technologies. The RHK analysis, entitled "Internet Traffic and Use: Surging Not Slowing," points to the rapid growth in high-speed Internet access to the home-both DSL and cable-as a key driver for surging bandwidth demand. Some 400,000 North American households per month are adopting high-speed access, the study says. With DSL or cable modems running at some ten times the speed of a dial-up modem, these users add directly to demand on the Internet backbone. In addition, other firms have recently found that high-speed users spend 61 percent more time on line than a year ago because the high-speed online experience is far more rewarding. The explosion of demand applies as well to enterprises where service providers are "inundated with requests for new, high-bandwidth applications," reports the study. RHK estimates that by July 2001 there will be some 800 million Internet users worldwide-up from 380 million today. Asian growth is phenomenal: China alone is adding around 2 million Internet subscribers a month, while Korea has 2 million high-speed households already hooked up. "Trans-pacific capacity is consumed as fast as it is installed or made available," says RHK. Behavior Change The RHK study argues that Internet use is likely to grow well beyond most forecasts because the widespread availability of fast, nearly-free Internet access will lead to a change in behavior as people modify their social, business, and entertainment lives to enjoy new services and applications that will be enabled by a fast, free Internet. The study cites Napster* as an example of a disruptive technology that arose from new capabilities of the Internet. At one university studied, bandwidth consumed by Napster rose to 27 percent of all Internet traffic at that university-illustrating the potential of a new service to drive multi-terabit demands for bandwidth. "Napster went from zero to 10 million users in one year," Ryan said. "That's an indication of the amazing power of fast, free bandwidth to alter the way people behave. When people grow used to the fact that they can grab a file from across the country or around the world as easily and quickly as they can from their own hard drive, we will start to see all kinds of new forms of behavior that will take advantage of this bandwidth. We are just at the start of an explosion in the use of networks." Nortel Networks president, Global Internet Solutions, Anil Khatod, welcomed the study as validation of Nortel Networks strategy, which is focused on building a High-Performance Internet with the capability to deliver maximum bandwidth while offering new services and driving down the cost of network ownership for service providers. "The impressive forecasts and evidence gathered by RHK show yet again that the explosive boom in Internet usage is unstoppable and inevitable. The potential of the Internet is limitless-here in North America and in the rest of the world," said Khatod. "Our challenge is to make the Internet profitable for our customers and that's a challenge we are addressing daily with our solutions and services that position service providers to unlock the revenue and profit potential of the bandwidth boom."