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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James C. Mc Gowan who wrote (35324)	11/20/2000 5:30:13 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

In my whole experience that is riddled with lot of these severe sellings, I have always seen that when analysts jump like rats out of the ship that is the worst time for an individual ivestor..today I had dinner with a MER analyst in my home in London, he told me Ike these are hard times and we are looking at 2200 level on Comp.. now I do know that CW going around is these levels, I for one was not even able to play my long option puts today the level of 1342 really never broke convincingly rather I added NT today.. I will go through this correction with my puts strategy and that is it.. I am not going to bail out that has never been the case at 1000 NDX Oct 98.. these things will pass .. but you should be invested in core stocks and you should not sell puts or be leveraged or margined, as far as your strategy doen not need to look at close every day and your heart throb at that call from the broker from the margin we will be alright..I know all this and in my opinion we are very near to a huge catch on the short side.. capitulation is near and with Comp down and SPX unable to breakthrough that crucial 1328 I can see distribution and some grace but ofcourse very dificult times when Comp is down huge nad one cannot even play the SPX as limits are not hit but discipline has to maintained..

To: James C. Mc Gowan who wrote (35324)	11/21/2000 7:29:27 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

<<How can we have a sustained rally when these larger players are betting on a continued downward trend, even from these 52 week low levels?>> I think you missed the small print.. TRADING STRATEGY BASED ON EXPERIMENTAL NET OPTION DATA: Since the time of the caveman, option traders have lost money. The NET OPTION DATA for the "small spec" tells us what the individual option traders as a group are doing. As a group, these are the most consistent money losers. If they are going heavy in a given direction in a given commodity we should consider positions opposite that group, either in futures positions or short option positions. (IE. If they have a large net long position we can assume they are long calls and we should consider short call positions or short futures positions.) The chart you referred.. please look at it carefully.. commitmentsoftraders.com The market has moved oppostie to the position taken by the traders as a group.. between 7-9 1998 and between 8-10 1998 and 10-2 1998- 2000 please look at the red line and please look at the market,,, when these guys were shorting hte market moved higher when these guys were long the market came off.. Right now the maount of short interest I see is phenomenol and you may see the results of it very soon. They are shorting the SPX the largest short positions in a decade for protecting losses in Comp, that is not-corelated trade... the losses in Comp are building up where as SPX stays firm, yesterday I explained this phenomenon wehn i said that I could even hedge my position, there was no room. below 1342.. although the market was down solid on Comp but hte real damage was NWX IIX DOT. the real hedge is not SPX for htat.. so if I see the potential here i can only see that if we cross the 1400 mark the ensuing rally will be phenomenol, most of htese guys need to double sell to sell from here, whereas I just have to wait get out of my Yums and Hons and buy NT's of the world, the sueeze will be forthcoming soon..this signal is very omnius that decade large positions to cover would need a lot of rally..