To: pcstel who wrote (19408 ) 11/21/2000 4:43:17 AM From: Maurice Winn Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29987 PCStel, When ships arrive in the USA from Korea full of cars or from Saudi Arabia full of oil they can leave empty and that doesn't mean there is a trade imbalance or trade deficit. I hired some people in San Jose and San Diego to make some really classy CDMA stuff, which they have done. They sell that to people who live in Korea and Saudi Arabia. So, the USA can sell new technology over the Internet and get ships full of 3D goods in exchange. The USA has been developing such high value goods which don't weigh anything for a long time now and the value of those low weight or weightless goodies is zooming up. Check out Microsoft's value since 1986 for example. The wonderful thing about economics is that it is self-balancing. Maybe the USA is running deficits right now [due to the very high price of oil] and debts to OPEC are increasing. That's okay. Debts have been around for a long, long time. Pretty soon the Saudis will have to spend the US$ they get for the oil. They'll buy Globalstar phones, BMW cars and Boeing trips to more salubrious climes than the desert. When the price of oil drops, the Saudis will perhaps go into debt, with their future production providing security for the lenders. There is no need for a recession because of a bit of fluctuation in debt levels. The Asian Contagion was a LOT more than a blip on a screen; it started in mid 1997 and lasted pretty much up to Y2K, though the dates are not definite [other than the run on the Malaysian money more or less defined the beginning]. You are right that Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia and a few others coming unstuck was not a huge deal overall but a USA crunch would be a big deal. But I'm not aware of why the USA should come a gutser. It all looks pretty good to me, even with oil at a huge high in price. The New Paradigm is roaring with enormous unstoppable power and is gathering momentum daily. Mqurice