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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JoeinIowa who wrote (22274)	11/20/2000 5:51:24 PM
From: JoeinIowa	Respond to of 29382

Call Off the Oil Stock Bears -- 4:00 PM EST by Rick Olivere, CFA The worldwide offshore rig count for the week of Nov. 17 increased by three from a month ago. The rig count for the US decreased by 27 to 1,057, while the count for Canada increased by 15 to 379 rigs. Oil prices and energy shares have experienced volitility because of statements by OPEC leaders that they would not increase oil production for the rest of this year, expectations of increased crude oil inventories, and the arrival of winter temperatures. With the Oil Service Index (OSX) down more than 10% from its mid-September high of 141.64, pessimism about future drilling activity is overdone in our opinion. We continue to believe that the critical investment issues are crude oil inventories at multi-year lows, excess capacity to produce oil concentrated in two countries, and cash flows from current oil and natural gas production that are likely to drive a multi-year drilling cycle. We reiterate our emphasis on the shares of contract drillers with international exposure, such as Pride [PDE: NYSE] and Santa Fe [: NYSE], as direct beneficiaries of increased drilling activity around the world. Buy Recommendations Ticker Price Price Potential Oil Producers/Refiners 11/17/2000 Target Gain Amerada Hess AHC $62.19 $80.00 29% BurlingtonResources BR $42.13 $71.00 69% BP BP $51.25 $ 65.00 27% Chevron CHV $83.75 $110.00 31% Forest Oil FST $14.31 $32.00 124% Occidental Petroleum OXY $21.13 $40.00 89% Valero Energy VLO $35.75 $50.00 40% Energy Service BakerHughes BHI $38.44 $45.00 17% CooperCameron CAM $55.13 $85.00 54% Diamond Offshore DO $34.88 $55.00 58% Friede Goldman Halter FGH $5.69 $20.00 252% Grey Wolf GW $4.56 $12.00 163% Halliburton HAL $37.19 $55.00 48% Marine Drilling MRL $24.94 $35.00 40% Nabors Industries NBR $53.16 $70.00 32% Parker Drilling PKD $5.75 $20.00 248% Pride International PDE $24.75 $52.00 110% Rowan Companies RDC $24.56 $70.00 185% SantaFe International SDC $ 33.56 $82.00 144% Schlumberger SLB $76.38 $100.00 31% Varco International VRC $18.38 $30.00 63% The weekly offshore mobile rig count survey by Offshore Data Services showed a decline of one rig from the previous week. The worldwide rig count of 558 at Nov. 17 shows a decline of two rigs under contract in the rest of the world and an increase of two rigs under contract in the Gulf of Mexico. Utilization in the Gulf of Mexico is now 87.7%, compared with 85.9% a month ago. Note that one rig was retired in the past week. A total of three rigs have been taken out of service since the end of February. Offshore Rig Count Rigs Under Contract Utilization Rate Week Month Year Month 11/17/00 Ago Ago Ago 11/17/00 Ago US Gulf of Mexico 179 177 176 149 87.7% 85.9% Europe/Med 91 92 91 73 88.3% 88.4% Rest of World 288 290 288 253 85.5% 86.0% Worldwide 558 559 555 475 86.6% 86.2% Source: Offshore Data Services Baker Hughes' rig count survey for the week ended Nov. 17 shows the number of land rigs working in the US decreased by 10 from a week ago to 1,057. With 824 rigs drilling for natural gas in the US last week -- compared with 6,487 a year ago -- and natural gas prices averaging more than $5 per million cubic feet for the past two months, we continue to emphasize Nabors [: ASE] and Grey Wolf [GW: ASE] as direct beneficiaries of increased land drilling for natural gas. We also suggest BP [BP: NYSE] as a candidate for a higher market valuation by investors because of its number-one position in the production of natural gas in North America. US and Canada Rig Count Week Month Year 11/17/00 Ago Ago Ago Canada 379 328 364 335 United States 1057 1067 1084 797 Source: Baker Hughes

To: JoeinIowa who wrote (22274)	11/20/2000 9:18:38 PM
From: Ken W	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

Joe: I'm not ready to give up on the short of ICST just yet. Notice that it hit its head twice right on the 200dMA. 207.61.23.98 If the 50dMA heads back up to the 200 and crosses to the upside then I'll cover. An upgrade by the underwriter would not be out of the question...suppose they would sell into any strength caused by and upgrade? <GGGGG> They have a gazillion shares to sell, obviously they don't want to sell them at 10! Ken