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Strategies & Market Trends : World Outlook -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: $Mogul who wrote (759)12/1/2000 2:37:40 PM
From: Don Green  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 48816
 
Filipino activists find mobile phones, text messaging 'perfect for insurrection'

Copyright © 2000 Nando Media
Copyright © 2000 Christian Science Monitor Service

By ILENE R. PRUSHER, Christian Science Monitor

MANILA, Philippines (December 1, 2000 1:31 p.m. EST nandotimes.com) - In the Philippines' last uprising 14 years ago, dictator Ferdinand Marcos was toppled by activists using ham-radio broadcasts and mimeographed fliers. It took years to build political momentum and months to organize a single "people power" rally.

Today's protesters are armed with Web-linked mobile phones and Internet mass mailings. And the opponents of President Joseph Estrada, who faces an impeachment trial next week, are putting tens of thousands of people into the streets of Manila in a matter of minutes.

Call it "spam democracy" or "instant protesting," but the pace of events in this society now offers a cautionary tale for government leaders everywhere.

"It's a perfect instrument for insurrection," says Alexander Mango, only half-jokingly, as he thumbs the rubber buttons of a sleek blue mobile phone to read a text message.

"It's like pizza delivery. We'll deliver the rally to you on the spot," says the University of the Philippines political science professor and presidential critic. For example, earlier this week, 20 protest groups formed in different locations around metro Manila before forming five larger ones that united at the Presidential Palace.

"I don't think Estrada understands that he's getting hammered in cyberspace," Mango adds. "The technologies of protest have taken a quantum leap from where they were before. We're not out painting on the walls anymore like we used to in the good old days."

Indeed, it has taken barely two months to rally massive public opposition to Estrada, who faces a Senate impeachment trial for allegedly pocketing about $11 million from tobacco-tax kickbacks and illegal gambling operations.

Estrada's trial in the court of public opinion, however, has already begun with the mounting reports of a lavish and lascivious lifestyle, a recent accumulation of real estate, and a pattern of cabaret-style Cabinet meetings that have called into question his ability to govern.

The public has been made aware of the apparent escapades of Estrada in real-time. Mango says that initially he was receiving about 10 anti-Estrada text messages - the latest perk of mobile Internet technology - each day. Now, he gets about 80.

"It's easy now to bring a million people to the streets nationwide," he says. "In a fast-changing situation, every cell phone becomes a transmitter. It's a far cry from when we had to deliver (fliers) to the provinces by courier," he says, recalling the difficulties of reaching outlying areas of the Philippines during the Marcos era.

Forced to call elections, Marcos succumbed to the swell of domestic and international criticism that sent him and his shoe-hoarding wife into exile, allowing Corazon Aquino to take control in 1986.

Today, there are more than 200 Web sites dedicated to the anti-Estrada campaign. Some are comical clearinghouses of jokes and cartoons; more serious endeavors include petitions of electronic signatures demanding the president's resignation. Activists download anti-Estrada songs and logos, and then arrive at rallies around the country with the same signs and slogans, building an image of national consensus.

To be sure, the Philippines is still a relatively poor country with a large technology gap. In a population of 74 million, there are about 2 million Internet connections and 3 million cell phones. But even in provinces and slums where Estrada, a former movie star, enjoys wide support, key local leaders who have influence also have mobile phones, and sometimes e-mail, as well.

In addition to the Internet and mobile phones, the Philippines now has an increasingly feisty media that is chronicling what appear to be the misdeeds of Estrada during his 2-1/2 years in office.

The Manila-based Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism has been at the forefront of the Estrada watch. The PCIJ, an independent media group which provides reports to various newspapers as well as producing its own publications, says it has evidence that Estrada has built 17 mansions since he became president, housing his wife and four mistresses, as well as various family members and his mother.

In one home, he imported white sands from a favorite Philippine beach for placement next to a pool with a wave machine. Another home, in Manila, has luxuries like a 90 square-meter bathroom with Jacuzzi and sauna, a minitheater, and four kitchens.

"The houses are a paper trail, because you cannot build without deeds," says Sheila Coronel, executive director of PCIJ, as she prints out her latest chart tracking presidential properties. Last year, she says, Estrada declared 2.3 million pesos - about $46,000 - in income.

"So how can he explain just one house, the Wack-Wack (Manila) house, which alone is worth $200 million?" asks Coronel. Various officials leading the drive to oust Estrada quote PCIJ's report in their impeachment complaint, accusing him of stock manipulation, graft, and various conflicts of interest in the 66 companies held "by Estrada, his wife, mistresses, and children."

Estrada remains popular among the poor, though some admit that his personal habits ought to be reformed. But his supporters say that the controversy is based more on class prejudice than malfeasance: The educated middle-class opponents never thought "Erap" - the backward spelling of "buddy" in Filipino - was up to the job.

The poor masses are left out of the digital communications. But they are being reached by new publications like the Pinoy Times, which was started last year by the publisher of the muckraking Philippine Daily Inquirer. The language of the paper is the vernacular, Tagalog, rather than the English that the "educated classes" read and speak, and the price is just five pesos, or about 10 cents.

Since the call for Estrada's resignation heated up six weeks ago, a Pinoy Times Special Edition - a weekend tabloid featuring new "findings" about Estrada's excesses and vampy pictures of his "favorite" ladies - began selling fast. It already has a circulation of 300,000.

"Now, we are in a more democratic milieu, even though a good number of the media are held captive because they have owners or investors who are cronies of Estrada," says Vincente Tirol, the paper's publisher.

"We saw the need for a paper that addresses the masa (masses). They elected Estrada to the presidency, but they hadn't realized that there is a difference between acting and governing. We wanted to give them a paper that they could afford to read."



To: $Mogul who wrote (759)3/8/2001 3:02:44 PM
From: Don Green  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 48816
 
Yen Slides After Finance Chief Says
Japan's Economy Is 'Near Collapse'
By PETER LANDERS and MICHAEL WILLIAMS
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

TOKYO -- Japan's finance minister, in remarks that sparked heavy selling of the yen, surprised investors with a warning that the government's finances are "near a state of collapse.''

Kiichi Miyazawa's comments Thursday were just the latest in a recent series of statements by Japanese economic authorities that have prompted investors to sell the Japanese currency. Wednesday, Bank of Japan Governor Masaru Hayami and Mr. Miyazawa himself also made remarks suggesting that the government would accept a weakening of the currency.

Mr. Miyazawa, seeking to control the damage from his outburst, later Thursday protested that wire-service accounts took his statement out of context, but his aides confirmed the wording of his remarks. Adding to choppiness in the foreign-exchange markets, Mr. Hayami also seemed to backtrack on his statements, and said a strong currency was in Japan's interests and the central bank would continue to mop up any yen created as a result of foreign-exchange intervention.

The yen was trading in Tokyo Thursday at around 120 yen to the dollar, near a 20-month low, after the comments by Messrs. Hayami and Miyazawa.

In midmorning trading in New York, the yen recovered slightly, trading at 119.55 yen to the dollar, from 119.92 yen late Wednesday in New York.

The Japanese officials' remarks come at a time of mounting concern over Japan's slowing economy and its weak banking system, which is showing renewed signs of severe strain. On Monday, Japan will announce gross domestic product for the October to December period of 2000. Some analysts expect output to have contracted for a second straight quarter, putting Japan in recession by the popular yardstick of back-to-back quarterly contractions.

Analysts also point to a further worrying detail expected in Monday's report: the little-noticed nominal, or nonadjusted, GDP growth is likely to be weaker than "real,'' or price-adjusted, GDP growth.

Most reports on any nation's figures for gross domestic product growth focus on so-called real growth, which takes inflation into account. If the total value of goods and services produced goes up 5% while inflation is 2%, then real growth is 3%, and that is the number economists tend to look at most closely.

But Japan is a special case. Here, prices are steadily falling, rather than rising as in almost every other nation. The gap between nominal GDP -- the raw value of what the nation produces -- and real GDP has been one of the best indicators of deflation. While the changes in nominal and real GDP were the same in the first two quarters of 1998, since then nominal GDP growth has always been worse than real GDP growth.

There is another reason to look at the nominal figures. Debts aren't indexed to price changes. So if the nominal value of what companies produce is falling, that means their debts are getting bigger in practical terms. That is the last thing that heavily indebted companies in industries such as retail and construction need. The inability of borrowers in such industries to repay their loans is the reason why Japan's banking system has been plagued with a huge burden of bad debts for the past decade.

A good example of the importance of nominal growth came in the second quarter of 2000, when Japan's economy shrank 0.4% in nominal terms. When adjusted for deflation, the figure turned out positive, showing "real" growth of 0.2%. The headlines talked of growth, but in fact the economy remained in trouble. A similar phenomenon could occur again on Monday. Some economists are predicting real growth of around 0.5%, but it isn't clear if the nominal figure can make it above zero.

The government's fear now is that the deflation is beginning to feed on itself. The more prices fall, the likelier Japanese are to save a lot of their income in the belief that their yen will have more buying power in the future. And the more companies see their revenue falling in nominal terms, the more they rush to cut costs, accelerating a downward cycle of prices that tends to choke the economy's vitality.

Thursday brought fresh bad news: Core machinery orders, an important leading indicator of investment, plunged 11.8% in January from the previous month, and household spending fell 0.5% in January compared with a year earlier.

"The fall in prices is rough on the economy,'' said Taichi Sakaiya, a former minister of economic planning who now serves as an adviser to the government, in a speech at HSBC Securities (Japan) Ltd. Though official figures suggest prices are falling at a rate of around 1% a year, ``in fact I wouldn't be surprised if they're falling 10%,'' Mr. Sakaiya said. "Government statistics are insensitive to both inflation and deflation.''

One proposed answer to deflation is weakening the yen. That would tend to raise the prices of imports in Japan and perhaps the overall price level as well. But a further depreciation of the yen would likely hurt Asian countries that compete with Japan, and also anger foreigners who invested in Japan when the yen was stronger. (A weaker yen would make those investments worth less when repatriated back into foreign currencies). For these reasons, Mr. Sakaiya said, the fall in the yen is "reaching the limits of ... toleration. We should ensure that it doesn't get to 130 yen."

Mr. Miyazawa's "collapse" comments Thursday referred to Japan's exploding government-budget deficit. As of March 31 this year, Japan's total public debt will reach 666 trillion yen ($5.571 trillion), which significantly exceeds the nation's annual economic output. The debt is the biggest in the world in absolute terms, and Japan has the highest percentage of debt to gross domestic product, now approaching 129%, among major industrialized nations.

Many politicians and private analysts have warned about the debt burden, but the warning delivered a shock coming from the veteran finance minister, who has a reputation for being the steadiest and most prudent leader among Japan's otherwise weak leadership lineup.



To: $Mogul who wrote (759)3/20/2001 6:26:54 PM
From: Don Green  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 48816
 
The only solution for Japan is to bring back MacArthur.... Japan needs a "Shogun" to run the country.

Bush Urges Japan To Solve Bad Debt Problem..

WASHINGTON (Nikkei)--At the Japan-U.S. summit Monday, U.S. President George W. Bush urged Tokyo to promptly resolve the bad debt problem shackling Japanese banks, while pledging to cooperate to avert any negative fallout from slumping stock markets in both countries. Bush said some Americans believe that Japan is not making sufficient effort to address the bad loan issue. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori promised to take immediate steps. He also said his government aims to decide, over the next six months, on how to deal with the long-term debt held by the central and local governments worth 660 trillion yen. Bush expressed concern about the prospects for economic recovery in Japan, prompting Mori to pledge to revive the economy through deregulation, structural reform and the promotion of information technology. Mori also said Washington, too, should work harder in order to stimulate the U.S. economy, noting that the economic slowdown in the U.S. is affecting Japan and the rest of Asia. The U.S. president pointed to worries among Americans that Japan is trying to trade its way out of its economic problems, indicating his disapproval of any measures to increase exports to the U.S. (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Wednesday morning edition)