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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (35102)	11/21/2000 12:53:29 AM
From: kumar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

At around 2,600 the NAZ is 50% off its high of eight months ago. Has this magnitude of drop ever happened before? I can honestly say - I dont know. If u recollect, I said in my previous post "multi-year buy and hold". Eight months is too short a term for me to evaluate and pass along my opinions. cheers, kumar

To: limtex who wrote (35102)	11/21/2000 11:16:54 AM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Respond to of 54805

Has this magnitude of drop ever happened before? That depends a lot on how you look at it. Some months back I played some statistical games on the NAZ and S&P over long history in which I plotted bands of plus and minus 3 standard deviation gain or loss around a smoothed trend. Last fall the NAZ poked through that barrier to the upside more strongly than ever before and every prior crossing of that line had been followed by a decline to near or over the minus 3 sigma line ... so from that perspective, what we are seeing here is totally expected, not in day to day detail, but in broad trend. But then, it is also true that every one of those overcorrecting dips was followed by a resumption of upward growth, so I see no reason to get overly excited.