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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (62921)	11/21/2000 2:06:47 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

WHAT TO EXPECT NOW. November 20, 2000. Ord Oracle The ARMS index closed on Friday at 1.91 and today at 1.36. Closing readings over 1.30 predict a low the next business day or the day after. We don't have the necessary signs for a low today and therefore the low could come in tomorrow or Wednesday. It appears there is a good chance the low will come this week, possibly on Wednesday or Friday at latest. This low may test the low of November 13 (1335 December S&P's) and possibly the October 18 low (1325 December S&P's) before reversing higher. What will be important is the volume on this potential re-test. If the volume is 10% or less than the previous low (whether the low of November 13 or October 18), a bullish signal will be generated by the volume studies. The "5 day ARMS" came in today at 6.08, which is bullish. The "Percent volume" indicator closed at .45, which is considered neutral. The high downtick reading today was only 744. We like to see downtick readings exceeding 900 for lows. The lighter volume test of the either low (November 13 low or October 18 low) will finish the basing process and start the next big up-leg. This light volume test should be accompanied by a high downtick reading to confirm the test. We have had several request to add options back in to our trading. On this next low, we will attempt to fine-tune a December call option. We are long the SPX. The Nasdaq 100 had a "5 day ARMS" reading of 8.29 on November 13. The last highest reading came on May 23 (which was 9.25). A day later the Nasdaq 100 made a bottom and rallied strong until July 17. In other words the higher the "5 day ARMS" reading, usually, the more bullish the picture. The Nasdaq 100 retraced 61.8% of the decline from the November 6 high to the November 13 low going into the November 15 top. A retracement of 61.8% or more of a rally predict the next time down the market should not take out the previous low. In this case, the November 13 low. On the break to a new recent low on November 13 the volume increased. Because of the increased volume, this low will probably be tested before the week is out. The volume should be 10% or less than the low day of November 13 (2.05 billions shares) for a bullish picture to be painted. This potential test should be successful, end the basing process, and start the next big up-leg. We are long the Nasdaq 100. We are bullish on gold. We are holding our long position in the XAU.

To: Les H who wrote (62921)	11/21/2000 11:42:15 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Market/Sector Breadth Journal: November 21, 2000 (3951 stocks) percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows market 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 10-days 20-days 1-year ---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- Nov 21 30 33 33 37 317 - 1244 249 - 894 69 - 378 Nov 20 28 34 34 37 263 - 1374 204 - 929 63 - 339 Nov 17 37 42 39 39 403 - 800 292 - 532 91 - 218 Nov 16 32 42 37 39 321 - 915 233 - 543 80 - 239 Nov 15 40 49 40 41 496 - 537 373 - 278 109 - 147 Nov 14 36 48 38 40 351 - 446 275 - 229 58 - 113 Nov 13 25 40 33 38 186 - 1206 147 - 659 27 - 238 Nov 10 29 44 35 39 202 - 1125 157 - 613 48 - 244 Nov 9 44 56 40 42 317 - 649 253 - 334 67 - 149 Nov 8 56 63 43 43 508 - 452 385 - 249 97 - 107 Nov 7 66 67 45 44 638 - 262 474 - 160 101 - 53 Nov 6 67 66 44 43 676 - 280 502 - 165 102 - 70 Nov 3 70 67 45 44 845 - 212 602 - 143 110 - 57 Nov 2 71 66 44 43 1096 - 212 720 - 146 134 - 63 Nov 1 64 59 40 42 757 - 238 438 - 181 89 - 77 Oct 31 68 58 40 42 1247 - 201 741 - 156 152 - 71 Nasdaq 100 percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows market 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 10-days 20-days 1-year ---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- Nov 21 2786 27 25 24 24 4 - 33 4 - 29 2 - 9 Nov 20 2792 17 22 25 20 4 - 40 3 - 31 2 - 6 Nov 17 2934 34 31 30 26 7 - 20 5 - 16 2 - 2 Nov 16 2925 22 29 27 26 4 - 19 3 - 12 0 - 3 Nov 15 3076 44 45 35 31 14 - 3 9 - 2 1 - 0 Nov 14 3039 38 40 30 29 8 - 4 8 - 3 1 - 1 Nov 13 2836 12 28 24 21 2 - 43 1 - 26 1 - 6 Nov 10 2890 13 31 24 25 2 - 45 1 - 25 0 - 7 Nov 9 3057 28 43 34 32 4 - 24 4 - 12 0 - 2 Nov 8 3059 40 52 34 31 3 - 20 3 - 12 1 - 2 Nov 7 3279 67 68 42 38 20 - 6 15 - 3 6 - 0 Nov 6 3290 70 69 40 37 16 - 3 13 - 2 4 - 1 Nov 3 3321 76 68 42 38 17 - 3 12 - 2 4 - 1 Nov 2 3308 72 71 47 40 43 - 6 28 - 5 4 - 2 Nov 1 3225 65 58 40 37 30 - 6 19 - 5 3 - 3 Oct 31 3282 68 60 39 38 34 - 2 25 - 1 3 - 0 S & P 100 percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows market 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 10-days 20-days 1-year ---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- Nov 21 713 41 47 51 51 21 - 25 19 - 17 8 - 6 Nov 20 710 38 47 51 50 12 - 29 10 - 12 2 - 3 Nov 17 725 43 52 58 51 13 - 15 12 - 8 3 - 3 Nov 16 724 44 59 53 56 14 - 18 11 - 8 5 - 4 Nov 15 733 56 65 59 58 21 - 10 16 - 2 3 - 1 Nov 14 729 39 67 56 56 9 - 7 6 - 2 0 - 0 Nov 13 712 34 55 52 53 7 - 25 7 - 8 1 - 1 Nov 10 719 37 64 55 55 12 - 24 9 - 10 2 - 3 Nov 9 739 60 74 59 57 8 - 11 6 - 4 1 - 2 Nov 8 743 68 79 62 59 14 - 5 12 - 2 3 - 1 Nov 7 756 76 78 65 61 25 - 4 16 - 1 0 - 0 Nov 6 755 83 79 63 58 21 - 2 17 - 2 2 - 0 Nov 3 751 74 72 59 58 18 - 2 13 - 1 2 - 0 Nov 2 753 81 75 62 57 33 - 5 21 - 5 2 - 2 Nov 1 748 85 74 61 58 34 - 4 15 - 2 2 - 1 Oct 31 750 82 68 57 57 46 - 1 27 - 0 6 - 0 percent stocks over MA ********* 10-day highs/lows ********** sector (num) 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 11/21 11/20 11/17 11/16 ---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------- --------- --------- --------- Aerospace/Defense (49) 45 55 51 63 12 - 6 5 - 9 4 - 8 9 - 8 Apparel (87) 41 57 55 56 8 - 15 7 - 14 10 - 5 11 - 12 Automotive (37) 22 19 30 19 1 - 14 1 - 13 3 - 9 2 - 9 Banks (113) 22 27 33 65 1 - 22 3 - 52 6 - 32 3 - 37 Biotechnology (158) 9 10 13 23 1 - 64 1 - 105 3 - 57 4 - 49 Building/Constr (107) 44 49 54 42 10 - 25 7 - 27 17 - 11 8 - 21 Chemical (61) 28 44 61 39 5 - 10 4 - 22 7 - 7 3 - 13 Commercial Svcs (186) 43 42 39 36 28 - 48 5 - 10 17 - 38 22 - 28 13 - 40 Computer Svcs (54) 26 31 35 20 5 - 16 4 - 21 4 - 12 0 - 13 Computer Equip (151) 13 20 19 21 3 - 62 7 - 66 5 - 33 5 - 49 Consumer Nondur (41) 34 46 54 41 7 - 10 4 - 9 3 - 7 3 - 11 Drug (ex-Biotech) (95) 27 29 33 55 7 - 34 6 - 38 10 - 23 6 - 18 Electronics (327) 15 14 13 20 7 - 125 6 - 129 10 - 72 8 - 79 Financial (113) 27 31 42 70 7 - 33 3 - 43 6 - 23 7 - 28 Foods (66) 79 83 76 77 22 - 2 17 - 3 23 - 3 20 - 3 Healthcare (95) 44 49 59 67 7 - 21 5 - 22 21 - 7 19 - 10 Household Prods (38) 21 26 32 21 2 - 12 3 - 15 6 - 5 1 - 7 Insurance (93) 41 49 71 77 2 - 25 7 - 13 15 - 7 12 - 10 Internet (322) 8 6 5 2 3 - 215 5 - 207 5 - 133 6 - 132 Leisure (113) 42 42 42 46 12 - 29 10 - 32 19 - 15 14 - 17 Machinery (47) 55 55 55 49 6 - 6 6 - 9 8 - 7 4 - 14 Media (95) 22 22 22 21 2 - 34 2 - 34 5 - 22 3 - 30 Medical Tech (126) 22 27 26 29 4 - 46 6 - 47 13 - 29 9 - 31 Metals (ex-Gold) (74) 28 30 32 22 4 - 12 3 - 19 4 - 14 2 - 20 Oil & Gas (177) 64 62 40 65 42 - 18 17 - 26 21 - 15 45 - 14 Paper Prods & Pkg (45) 33 38 53 22 5 - 14 3 - 13 4 - 15 2 - 14 Real Estate (116) 53 55 35 53 18 - 8 16 - 10 18 - 6 12 - 15 Retail (233) 36 47 45 44 15 - 52 25 - 50 28 - 22 23 - 33 Semiconductors (161) 12 9 9 10 4 - 55 2 - 57 3 - 30 5 - 32 Software (184) 17 20 23 24 5 - 81 7 - 82 17 - 36 9 - 44 Telecom (294) 9 7 9 6 2 - 147 1 - 161 5 - 100 6 - 97 Transportation (81) 48 64 67 56 18 - 11 5 - 12 9 - 7 16 - 9 Utilities (115) 68 72 68 77 33 - 7 49 - 14 62 - 9 36 - 10 AIQ market log (buy - sell ratios of signals) Unconfirmed Signals (US) market DJIA SPX OTC Universe OEX NDX ---------------------- ------ ----- ----- -------- -------- -------- Nov 21 10,494 1347 2871 79 - 21 60 - 40 86 - 14 Nov 20 10,462 1342 2875 77 - 23 50 - 50 71 - 29 Nov 17 10,629 1367 3027 70 - 30 44 - 56 62 - 38 Nov 16 10,656 1372 3031 68 - 32 37 - 63 57 - 43 Nov 15 10,707 1389 3165 61 - 39 17 - 83 60 - 40 Nov 14 10,681 1382 3138 69 - 31 14 - 86 71 - 29 Nov 13 10,517 1351 2966 74 - 26 33 - 67 75 - 25 Nov 10 10,603 1365 3028 54 - 46 14 - 86 67 - 33 Nov 9 10,834 1400 3200 29 - 71 0 -100 14 - 86 Nov 8 10,907 1409 3231 17 - 83 0 -100 0 -100 Nov 7 10,952 1431 3415 10 - 90 0 -100 0 -100 Nov 6 10,977 1432 3416 10 - 90 0 -100 0 -100 Nov 3 10,818 1426 3451 11 - 89 0 -100 0 -100 Nov 2 10,880 1428 3429 12 - 88 0 -100 6 - 94 Nov 1 10,899 1421 3333 20 - 80 0 -100 7 - 93 Oct 31 10,971 1429 3369 22 - 78 0 -100 8 - 92 November 21 Weighted Action List (WAL) Unconfirmed Signals (US) Universe 26 - 74 79 - 21 OEX 17 - 83 60 - 40 NDX 11 - 89 86 - 14