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Technology Stocks : Network Appliance -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: pinhi who wrote (5262)11/21/2000 8:59:16 AM
From: DownSouth  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10934
 
Sometimes GM and I just piss each other off. I hope that y'all (all y'all) will continue to ask questions. They are useful.

Greg will endeavor to predict the shortterm moves of the stock price, so send those questions to him <g>. I'll endeavor to discuss competition and NTAP's products and vision. We'll both be equally accurate <vbg>, only it will take a few days to see GM's fallibility and months or years to see mine. <bfg>



To: pinhi who wrote (5262)11/21/2000 9:16:06 AM
From: Uncle Frank  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 10934
 
>> We are not negative on NTAP-just trying to get questions answered.

Imo the process of researching an investment by "baiting the expert" is flawed, not to mention rude. You will never be comfortable with your premature investment in ntap until you perform your own due diligence. Putting Down South through the wringer only results in gaining an understanding of his opinion, not developing one of your own. His comments of the last few years are archived on this thread, and represent an excellent starting point for your own research.

uf



To: pinhi who wrote (5262)11/21/2000 10:08:20 AM
From: Brian K Crawford  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10934
 
I've also enjoyed reading Downsouth and Greg on NTAP.

I didn't fully grasp the power of NTAP's position until I read The Innovator's Dilemma by Clayton Christensen. The book was very helpful in understanding the edge NTAP has against the incumbents in storage (or more accurately, the Achilles Heel that the incumbents possess).

In Christensen terms:

EMC, the big standalone in storage, has a huge installed base to protect and a proprietary closed architecture. EMC has a vested interest in protecting their margins that are based on server attached storage. EMC allows a data center manager to acquire best-of-class storage with best-of-class service, and attach it to the servers of their choice. There is a premium price to be paid to deal with EMC.

The box makers are selling their own proprietary version of server attached storage. An EMC type solution, and typically not cheap, but with fewer switching choices.

NTAP offers modular storage with better price/performance ratios, lower tech support requirements, and easier upgrades. Closer to plug and play.

NTAP filers represent a classic example of a disruptive innovation: A new product coming in with less raw performance than the leading, established product, but with a substantial price advantage. NTAP offers cheaper, easier to manage storage. It can be added to more affordably than many server attached alternatives.

The value propositions:

EMC offers "the standard" in engineering, raw performance, field support, and hardware quality.

NTAP has answered with superior back-up, redundancy, and ease of use features, PLUS superior price per storage unit.
With its very capable fail-over and mirroring capabilities, NTAP provides the Data Center manager with "enough" data loss protection, and a superior value in total cost of ownership per unit of storage.

The dilemma:

So what do the established storage providers do? ANY competitive answer cuts into their own margins.

Their options:
1. Ignore the Innovator, hoping it will go away. Disparage their solution wherever possible. (and lose more market share)
2. Lower the price on their existing lines to meet the price/performance point of the Innovator (and lose margin, while maintaining share)
3. Raise the features and performance on existing lines while keeping price constant (and lose margin while maintaining share)
4. Introduce a "me-too" solution that accelerates the penetration of the innovation into the marketplace (and lose margin while maintaining share, but at least be prepared to grow with the new solution).

It's pretty clear to me that #4 is the only rational solution.

Meanwhile, the REAL dilemma is that the incumbent organization resists the success of the new product line, even as it attempts to clone it. The instinct is to keep supporting the cash cow and it is awfully painful to kill your own offspring.

I view storage as a royalty game and have picked NTAP as my best risk/reward candidate. If I am wrong and Downsouth is correct that NAS is a Gorilla Game, and if NTAP is THE Future Storage Gorilla, I expect to have a very pleasant upward surprise.

Brian