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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Carolyn who wrote (2869)	11/21/2000 9:42:15 AM
From: chomolungma	Respond to of 6710

For those who think that this recount is going to go Bush's way, think again. Even if Bush picks up another 300 military votes, the lead after the initial handcount will be less than 1,000. There are 1,500 disputed ballots in Broward county which went 68.5% for Gore. This yields an expected pickup of 557 votes. In Palm Beach there are a whopping 4,000 of these ballots where Gore won 63.7% of the vote. The expected pickup here is 1,100 votes. I don't have the numbers on Miami-Dade, but if there is 2,000 there, Gore could pick up a few hundred more. But remember, the recount of these disputed ballots will be done by Democrats and it is likely that you will get much bigger swings than the initial proportions would predict. I think the Democrats will shoot for a margin in excess of 2,000 to make it look bigger than Bush's original margin.

To: Carolyn who wrote (2869)	11/21/2000 9:51:41 AM
From: chomolungma	Respond to of 6710

I think the issue of the questionable ballots must be addressed by the SC. The pile grows ever larger in the three counties. No, I don't think you want that. If the SC lays down guidelines, it will only make the count look more reputable and accurate. This is what the Democrats want. They want this count to look like it is based on fact and not on 10,000 small decisions made by biased interpreters. If fraud has been done it is already in place and waiting to be counted. You don't want that legitimized by seemingly impartial rules set down by the Supreme Court do you? I think Bush needs to change strategies. If the hand recount is authorized, he should pull out his people from the counties and let the Democrats count the ballots. They are going to come out ahead anyway (see my last post). This would highlight the fact that this is not an impartial count and lay the ground work for when Katherine Harris refuses to certify it.