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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (35135)	11/21/2000 12:13:31 PM
From: limtex	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

MB - I think the point is that we have all been here since mid March and our hopes or predictions have so far been well lets say unfulfilled. It started to occur to me that no-one on SI save perhaps for marginmike predicted and took the right action. For the most part we have completely misread the makret and one of the biggest crashes in its history. Now it might all turn out to be OK next year but in the meantime we have Mr Greenspan who seems intent on keeping interest rates at what imho are high enough to break the economic expansion which has been proceeding quite nicely for over eight years with benign inflation. If that is the case and it seems to be going down that road then PEs are going be cut back very sharply. The old addage "Never fight the Fed" has been proven this year in a way that none of will ever forget. Best regards, L

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (35135)	11/21/2000 12:16:21 PM
From: jerryriti	Respond to of 54805

>What recession, pray? You are forecasting a recession but that is forecasted 27 times each decade. < While you are correct that Wall Street overpredicts to recession, I believe that they have accurately predicted 9 of the past 5 recessions! That said, there are many who do perceive a convergence of factors pointing to recession! These include: Oil prices rising Global banking centers raising rates Slow down in tech spending Ed Hyman, International Strategic Investments, one of the most respected economists on the street places the chance of recession at 40%! This was announced at the end of October to his clients which include 750 major institutions! Will the fed loosen their tightening bias as most think they should, or is Mr. G's preoccupation with inflation going to take us into a very hard landing? Who knows? IMO, there wwill be plenty of time for bargain hunting among the G&Ks when the Fed announes a loosening of their tightening bias, but it would seem cavalier to ignore the 40% probability/possibility of a recession!