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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (35146)	11/21/2000 2:18:53 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Respond to of 54805

I see the way to infinite riches. We have to get out and sell short as soon as the LAST 0.5% of interest rate hikes is announced. What a wonderful cast iron rule! But, er, wait a minute. Where's the label that says "LAST"? It seems to turn out that the ups and downs of consumer confidence, interest rates, stock prices etc. DON'T at all reliably predict continued ups and downs. We don't get smooth sine or cosine plots. Instead we get noise. You are thinking about a world in which trends are smooth. In the real world trends reverse constantly. Finally show me the guy who got rich over a long period of time by selling at the (advent of?) rising Fed rates and presumably buying back when they are perceived to be falling. Even a discount broker will get rich from his custom.