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To: DownSouth who wrote (5282)	11/21/2000 12:45:59 PM
From: bobkansas	Respond to of 10934

DS, A thought: You are an INVESTOR at heart and Greg M is a TRADER at heart. You will not ever be able to totally convince each other regarding NTAP because of the angle from which each of you are coming from. I very much appreciate your great posts of fundamental analysis wisdom on the thread. But, you might want to save your energy in regards to responding to Greg as he has a different agenda...not worst..not better...but different. Very best regards, Bob

To: DownSouth who wrote (5282)	11/21/2000 12:46:43 PM
From: kas1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10934

Make a prediction. Hard numbers. Hard dates. Isn't that what TA is about? I think the charts indicate that the stock could go up from here, unless it goes down, unless it stays here to "find a base." In all my years reading SI, I've never seen a TA'er make a prediction that excludes something -- i.e. is not tautological. BTW, over the weekend I finally got around to reading "Where Are the Customers' Yachts?" and highly recommend it. It's one of those books that everyone knows about, but few have actually read. The author saw thru TA even in 1940. Since you're a Malkiel fan, you may want to pick it up if you haven't already. The conclusions are the same as Malkiel's, but the writing is less analytical and much funnier. Disclaimer: Although I believe TA has no predictive power for me, I have nothing against anyone else using it in their own portfolio. So please don't be offended by this post (or reply in anger) if TA works for you.

To: DownSouth who wrote (5282)	11/21/2000 1:17:32 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10934

DS, I really do not want to go into it with you. I will make one comment about how I use TA, after which you can just skip my post about it since you see it as no use, which is ok by me, to each his own. When I use TA I do not make a complicated. I'm not out to predict where the stock will go to a particular price or not, no ONE has that power. sometimes you can get it right, more often then not, a news release comes out and changes the picture on micro and macro sense. I do not accept, like many others that use TA, that all current and near term news is reflected in the chart. I use TA to try to understand how investor psychology is now and how it might be in near term future. So, I am not one to get into bouncing off trend lines and such. TA is a tool, not the be all to end all for me at least. Take NTAP for example, stockcharts.com[L,A]DBOLNYMY[DD][PB25!B50!B100!B200!F][VC60][IUC20!LB14!LF!LG!UA12,26,9!LJ[$SPX]] , you can clearly see how fast the stock dropped, you can easily surmise that many holders were off guard and will want to get out as the stock tries to move higher, that's called overhead resistance. Given the state of the market, and the economic back drop we have, throw in the overhead resistance, you get a stock that will likely base as long as the current story stays the same. SO, until we get a catalyst to change the over all market conditions (best case fed ease) or the NTAP story changes in some way, I see NTAP making a base. QCOM is great example of stock that made a very long base that was about to have the story change. When a stock makes a very long base like QCOM did you can easily see that most of the sellers are gone and the remaining holders are strong believers in the story. Once I saw how the big cell industry was going to be as cell phones started to become net access devices, and the story was about to change with QCOM settling with ERICY, I took the gamble and moved into QCOM in march of that year the week of the settlement. Greg