Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bosco who wrote (8044)	11/21/2000 5:25:05 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

Hi Bosco: We’ll the $48 from August didn’t hold long the other day and $43 didn’t hold well yesterday. The $39 we are at now is from July and is now another double bottom break from August. This is the last strong support and then down to $30. She breaks this who knows how fast and hard they take it down. Lets just say I was caught by the break of $52 and now feel we are going to have a tough time breaking $48 in a favorable market and IF we get above $48 I doubt we’ll be able to conquer $60. Now I am quite bullish on the B2B space and CMRC in particular. It is the #2 marketplace leader (behind ARBA) and with exploding revenues (look at the sequential #’s this year) with the company forecasting 100% growth next year. I think this quarters revenue growth is forecast to be 56% sequential ($175 vs. 112 last quarter). It continues to sign new customers and as the marketplaces come on line they recognize the revenue. Once on line they then start receiving transaction revenue which should be substantial (of course this can take longer than anticipated). A big plus is the SAP and GM tie ins not to mention the PSFT, GE and Anderson Consulting arrangements. I think the SAP deal is in its infancy and will bear large dividends. Now to gain market share they did incur substantial dilution. IMO this is a small price to pay for the future revenue streams. They still need Covinsat (sp? The auto exchange) to come on line. This will be a major plus and all the auto makers will be trying to squeeze costs as fast as they can. The street is back into a show me mode and now nervous they will miss the 4th qtr numbers. In honesty I don’t know enough about the management team (last qtr was my first cc) but I will give them the benefit of any doubt as they grow the company (note I also gave Detmer @ IFMX some benefits to my loss). Until we obtain some fundamental news to clear up these #’s I don’t see $60 and due to this uncertainity $39 won’t hold if the market continues to sell off. I do anticipate the company turning profitable 2nd qtr (companies guidance) 2001 BUT for next year management has low balled revenue ($800 to $825, when they will generate $175 this qtr.) and earnings (no profit but they’re forecasting profits from 2nd qtr onward) in their forecast OR revenues stop growing (considering they way the transaction licensing revenue is growing I don’t see this) OR expenses grow to outpace revenues (I don’t see this and at some point (especially once they stop grabbing for market share0 expenses as a % of sales will decrease and margins should really jump. They have exceed expectations since they've come public. I feel about CMRC as I felt about CHKP two years ago although at this stage two years ago CHKP was profitable (but CHKPs business was in its infancy and management couldn’t provide the guidance the street wanted, i.e. predictable growth, CHKP was not able to provide this till the July 99 cc). I have a friend who’s business (he’s responsible for systems including purchasing & supply chain for a large chemical co.) and they are using ORCL database and going to be using the American Express exchange (this is ARBA’s not CMRC). They are not as concerned about the transaction fee (which is built into the cost of the item) but the elimination of all the expenses plus the coordination with suppliers and customers. We’ll I won’t bet the farm on CMRC since things change and I wouldn’t be on margin in this environment (Bosco my forays onto margin have been brief and not a large % of the portfolio since March, I was spanked some then) So I still like it but can be wrong and until it becomes profitable it will be hit in market downdrafts. Hey look @ DVN as a safer chart in this environment. I expect a 30% gain with NG at these levels. Tim