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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (41904)	11/22/2000 6:23:10 AM
From: Condor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Europe down 1.7 to 2.5 % and asia down .75 to 2.75 % Going to be another rough day.

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (41904)	11/22/2000 7:02:05 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Remember at 2500 on NASD most nasd 100 stocks are trading around 40-48 PE. This looks reasonable if you take the fed into consideration. Those that are looking for Capitulation in 1 day to determine a bottom must not look at 1 day but the last 2.5 weeks. Capitulation does not have to be a one day event, and I base this on reasearch of the top NASD performers over the last 2.5 weeks. We are currently in a capitulation stage. Closer to the end then the beginning. This wash out may bode well for a nice move from late e Dec- March but what I am mostly afraid of is EARNINGS WARNING SEASON. It is slowly creeping up and must be dealt with. The sectors that I now believe will lead the market higher are as follows: 1. Optical-- still growing at a nice clip, evidenced recently with SCMR, FNSR, and NT. 2. Chips--- This sector took the NASD from 2600 last novemeber to 5100 in march, the stocks are just too cheap and their best quarters are coming up.( in particular LSI ) 3. IPO this may be a strange call but indeed some of the best IPO's are now down over 90% from their high's and with absolutely no fundamental issues at hand. In particualar AVCI, NUFO, CORV, ACPI, and to a lesser degree OPLK. (DD is required, and a necessity to understand if an IPO is viable, all 5 are under my model looking out 9-24 months) The sectors I would stayaway from are as follows; 1. ENERGY--I am of the belief they have had their best months and perhaps OPEC may of oversupplied the market. Stayaway until late spring. 2. Bio-tech--- I know I will get alot of slack for this call but taking CRA out, most of this sector looks SPENT! Funds are actually net sellers up here and I would expect that money to flow into the other areas. 3. Retail--- this will be one of the worse X-mas seasons in a while. Greeny is to blame, I expect net selling into x-mas season preparing for BAD number for next quarter. 4. Cunsumer staples---- This sector hhas done verywell over the last 3.5 months. But as these tech stocks and NASD corrects money will flow out of C. Staples and into more depressed areas. Good luck everyone and remember when you least expect it this market will reverse in a big way! One last thing Greeny will be our friend come Dec 19, to jump start a new years rally!!