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To: Archie Meeties who wrote (79736)11/22/2000 12:57:17 PM
From: Telemarker  Respond to of 95453
 
"...and a basically well managed economy is in trouble."

These days, capital seems to have very little tolerance for responsible behavior, IMO. Record U.S. trade deficit of $34Billion announced and, of course, the dollar rallies. The rest of the world must indeed be in sorry, sorry shape.

In communications with my family in Argentina, I have supported the governments management of the economy for the last 10 years - basically beginning with the convertability law. This through the Mexican "tequilla crises", the "Asian flu" and the Brazilian devaluation. It has appeared for some time now that Argentina has indeed been the victim of a string of exogenous events, hopelessly unable to attract needed capital for growth. Sadly, it's hard to get the populous behind reforms in this type of situation.

Oddly, if the worst does come to pass, I'm not sure whether it should be viewed as a debt crisis or a currency crisis. Argentinian law requires its central bank to maintain one U.S. dollar in reserve for each peso it issues, seeming to eliminate the prospect for a currency crisis. Yet, the option to devalue ones way out of debt problems (ala Brazil) isn't available without a change in the law.

Perhaps capitalism truly only has a place here in the U.S. -in the brokerage houses, the traders desks and our PCs at home??

I note that natural gas accounts for 45% of Argentina's total domestic energy supply, compared to the worldwide average of 23% in a feeble attempt to qualify this an an "on topic" post. Finally I'll suggest that TGS may be a very strong, conservative natural gas investment once things settle down some.

Thanks for your patience.