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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (8114)	11/22/2000 3:35:51 PM
From: Lee	Respond to of 30051

Zeev, I do recall that preference and we are on the same page regarding the tonic of the type of tax cuts that help. I'm not so sure who will pour and feel less the need to pay down debt at this point. Now the market tends to factor in the recovery before its felt in Main Street. It seems that the turnips do not see that next year. Is that because: a) Interest rates to be sticky high? b) Long time to get pent-up demand? c) Asian issue? d) Excess buildings and machines? e) Dollar issue still needs to kick-in? f) Something else? I am concerned about all of the above. However, the current favored scenario is that the long-term IT investment boom has not run its course. In this scenario consumption is an issue. The ROW in terms of Asian issues and dollar issues also are factors. For the US these factor turns from a negative (lower demand) to positive (lower prices) in 2nd half of 2001. About this time the next leg of the technology born investment led expansion, spurred by high speed networks, kicks-in and is followed by the wireless investments. This scenario would see a positive turn for the markets Q2-Q3 next year. Investment led expansions tend to end badly. I’m not sure this one has ended. It seems more like the longer wave was interrupted by a demand boom wave born of the stock market from the longer wave. Other scenarios that are not so favorable are in the mix. On balance…it depends. Lee