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Strategies & Market Trends : NetCurrents NTCS -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KevinMark who wrote (4865)	11/22/2000 4:44:28 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8925

What parameters on your BB? Re Greenspan... he seems to be doing his job. I don't think that a few interest rate hikes are really causing all this in tech land... based on the history and events unfolding, that alone could hardly be behind both the rise and fall of the tech market. Have a look at this percentage change chart. intelligentspeculator.com Interest rates are not that much less restrictive now, on a historical basis, than they were before. And the tech market has long been lauded as being interest rate immune, to a large degree. Yet look at how the market reacted during the first few rate hikes last year? Also witness the relative outperformance of old economy names that are in fact interest rate sensitive. Now if you are referring to the giant influx of cheap capital in the system to stabilize things during Y2K, I suppose some culpability may reside there. But so much of the market rise was fueled by a greedy get rich quick, durn quick, public that were keen to buy anything that was moving up. I hardly think we can hold the Fed responsible for that. And clearly Greenspan was concerned about this well in advance, but being the capitalistic society we are, could hardly do anything active (like abolish margin!) to stave off the inevitable. All the way up thoughtful folks that have lived through this before were speaking out, only to be dismissed and shot as "out of touch" or "bearish" or "old era/old economy". Well humans don't change that fast, not in thousands of years, and those old basic emotions keep coming back time and again. This whole craze and crash is not the work of one man or one organization. We became nations of day traders (me too, I was lured into this!) in the hope of scoring big, fast. Well now everyone is learning that not everyone gets out at the top tick. Painful but neccessary. Mike (if any one group is to blame for whipping the public into a frenzy, it will be the Larry Kudlows, Joe Battapaglias of the world and CNBC in particular the mark haines variety who delighted in trotting out the ultrabulls to keep the feeding frenzy moving). But people need to be responsible for themselves.