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To: KevinMark who wrote (4870)	11/22/2000 5:33:32 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Respond to of 8925

KM, Re BB, ok, I see what you are looking at but don't see the point. Not trying to be difficult but I don't use BB often at all. Looking at INDU in 1929 it stretched the BB down and in fact there were several months where the candle was wholly or almost wholly below the lower BB plot. And then the market took its time and sunk for a couple of years more. I think BB's portray a decent story when the volalilty pushes price to either extreme, but I think that story may only be valid if the trend is in fact intact. Probably not so valid if the trend has bended... In fact I should dig out an old system trading program I wrote. It used a BB that was derived from adaptive techniques. On paper it made tons of money in a topping market by entering the market short when the BB was pushed down. There were other factors in the system including a recent test of top, that probably more than the BB made for the success of the system. But drawing straight lines on charts got me the same results (detecting trend change) with more accuracy so I ignored it. Re Greenspan, and believe me I'm not defending the guy, I think the Fed should have used their ability to make margin more difficult to get (I believe they have jurisdiction over that). It would have helped curb the speculation. Ooops, sorry, my single comment on 6 rate hikes is that its more like 3 rate hikes. Logical in that 3 rate easings were directly as a result of the Asian Financial Crisis, and it was logical that those easings would be removed over time. I think this year we saw the end of speculation, after running up so high, there will be big players than know its time to scoot and when they launched their first volley of selling, it took the breath out of the market. It was only a matter of time before more players would feel the same, before valuations would finally come to meaningful discussions instead of being dismissed. Remember Bloget's call on YHOO? He started it all I think. Then there was the analyst that pegged QCOM at 800! Almost hit it in weeks. That's ridiculous by any stretch. Linux speculation. B2B. B2C. Portals. Old Tech. New Tech. Man o man, the specualation was very long in the tooth. GSpan did not create all that... the destruction of wealth was bound to happen, rate hikes or not. But that's all water under the bridge, bring on the next trade, any direction, I don't really care despite these long messages! PS, Have a nice day off and enjoy the day.