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To: bobby is sleepless in seattle who wrote (4872)	11/22/2000 5:52:04 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8925

Are fundamentalists now in play, maybe upsetting the balance of the technician, the numerous head fakes ecnountered for either the short or long intended with huge swings intraday not giving value to other frame of reference...who's leading who?...as the technician says, the noise is in the the charts...who's the cause and effect?... Price moves because of many players, all with different time frames, emotions, opinions. Even in a positive market, some are selling while at the same time others are buying. What made one person sell and another buy? One was afraid that prices would be higher later and one had the opposite fears. Another felt a sell off was 'irrational and overdone' yet another saw a sell off as impending doom and sold all. Thankfully the world is peopled with different folks otherwise it might be hard to trade or invest if we all came to the same conclusion at the same time. Thanks to these and other differences, I have no fear that charting the market will cease to work, as its the only objective means of gauging who's leading at any given point. Sometimes neither lead... those are key places to watch. . I will contend the folks you are reaching are of the minority,,,and from those only a minority will survive... I don't disagree at all. Because people are different, some will not be able to shed their emotion. Some will not do the simple work requried to learn. Some will not believe it can work. etc. And others will find another method that works (or doesn't work) for them. I've got technical analysis books from the 30's where the question "won't it stop working when everyone knows the methods" is asked... well it hasn't stopped working yet. All those human issues keep things a rolling along. gotta run, have a nice Thanksgiving day...

To: bobby is sleepless in seattle who wrote (4872)	11/27/2000 10:43:53 PM
From: Susan G	Respond to of 8925

Hydrating for the Elusive Run By Todd Harrison 11/27/00 7:20 AM ET Approaching the home stretch, many investors are holding their collective breath for the year-end sprint to begin. While Market 2000 has been a difficult one, there remains a glimmer of hope that we've seen the worst, the weak holders have been shaken out and the truly resilient will prosper as the angry and battered bull regains its footing. Those who've read me for a while know I've been quite cautious since I began writing during the summer. While lower prices temper that thought process, concerns remain. Trust me, having been bearish while the masses were long felt somewhat like betting the "no pass" line on a craps table -- there's a distilled and muted satisfaction in getting it right while others fail. It's just bad karma. One of the concerns I've highlighted has been the potential for a liquidity drought heading into yearend. In years past, the Asian contagion, Long Term Capital bailout and Y2K practical joke all caused the Federal Reserve to inject significant liquidity into the system. I don't see the catalyst this year, unless the electoral debacle further unwinds confidence in the system. For that to happen, unfortunately, we'd have to see much lower prices in the marketplace. If the pure supply/demand equation weren't troubling enough, I doubt we've seen the worst on the credit front. Individuals face historically high levels of credit card and consumer debt while margin levels remain high. Further, we've yet to experience the mutual fund redemptions that will likely take place before we see the low of this cycle put in place. This doesn't mean we won't see rallies nestled between the selloffs. I wrote in last week's Trading Diary that a narrow window exists for the market to attempt a lift before we see the continuation of warnings from corporate America in December and January. Higher prices should be taken advantage of by making some sales and raising cash levels. As always, your time horizon and risk profile should dictate your decisions as each of you has different investment objectives. It remains important, however, to recall the lessons learned this year and not become intoxicated when we get our seas of green. Remember, the goal here is to preserve enough capital to be able to capitalize on the opportunities that present themselves when the new cycle begins ... and it's never too late to start putting that money away for the next race. (from RealMoney/The Street.com)