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To: Tom M who wrote (40492)	11/22/2000 9:18:04 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Tom, i hadn't seen that...no time yet to read the thread. i admit that's a bit concerning. my own position is that one must be open to ALL possibilities, even an immediate resumption of the bubble, the thing that looks most unlikely right now. one only need to look at longer term charts of Brazil, or Hong Kong to name some examples, or even the European indices over recent years to see that even the most vicious declines can sometimes be recovered completely within astoundingly short periods of time. at some point, that could even become the contrarian stance that needs to be adopted actually. one simply should try to adapt quickly to whatever the market itself dictates. if the worst case scenario, a secular bear, has begun, it will be interrupted by numerous bull campaigns no doubt...but they will only be useful for those who are familiar with the word 'sell'. too early to judge with any finality however what this is imo. unfortunately it looks to have a lot of potential to get bad. re. last years gold rally, very refreshing, and much too short-lived...but the fact that bearishness has actually increased compared to that observed at last year's low without a new low being made is somewhat encouraging...furthermore the improvement in gold's relative strength vs. the dollar has brought about gold bulls in almost all non-USD currencies, in which last year's highs have generally been eclipsed already. also, the increase in bearishness has meant that the gold stocks made a lower low, while gold did not. so we have two non-confirmations spread over the space of more than a year, which looks constructive imo. big commercials net long position too, so good chances for another decent pop at the very least.