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To: pinhi who wrote (88130)	11/23/2000 4:50:35 PM
From: engineer	Respond to of 152472

No, I think AG is focusing on the "old guard" on wall street who still think that the .coms in any shape or form are evil and have no real place in business. AG really does not give a damm about the tech compnent of the economy UNTIL it heats up so taht we have a "Wealth effect" and then he gets too many calls from his old world country club crowd to slow down the new members flow into the clubs. He only owns bonds and things he can put in a blind trust. If you look only at the dow, we are pretty stable. If you look at teh naz, we went from 2500 up to 5200 and now back down to 2755. The fact that he can ignore the downturn in tech equities after he was so vocal about their upturn just shows that he doesn;t understand the economy. His soft landing is going to hit us all hard for about 2 years while he finally gets it. He has already started on the road to repeating the 1929-33 era with the exception that we do not have a giant "crash" to focus on. In 1929, it all took place over about 3 weeks and the decline we had then was about 3 times as much as we have now. We have just had this market where it goes down 100 a day for 5 days then up 100 for a day, then down 100 a day for 5 days. Been doing this on and off since Feb. Net effect is that we went from 5200 down to 2755 in Naz and 11,800 down to 10400. Just did not happen in 3 weeks and mostly happened to the naz(tech) side. I don't think AG has any of the right indicators for the new economy in his bag. 100's of more poeple are self employed these days than ever before. You can work from home in an internet biz wihtout having any kind of employer. This is NOT reflected in his numbers. He also does not take into account the people who invest daily rather than work daily. He does not have a good handle on how to estimate and integrate teh internet e-tailing. This year for Christmas, they estimate that there will be more than $2B in e-tailing. I will bet you that the FED does not have this entered into their economic numbers. This is 30% of the total shopping for the year end. He is focused on "old economy" numbers for his interest rate changes. Until he figures out what the new econ is about, he is doomed to repeat past hisotry. (And Mike, as far as hedge funds, two things...first the percentage of debt versus 1929 is much less than then, and the downturn has been slow enough that all the really giant gamblers out there have had adequate time to pull back from the highly leveraged positions they had.)