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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DownSouth who wrote (35204)	11/23/2000 12:12:43 AM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

It it isn't reall "all optical" then it fall short of its hype and its level of disruptiveness is unpredictable, beginning at "not disruptive at all". Haven't we been around this path more than once before? The real holy grail in optical, with no current contenders, is optical routing, i.e., actually responding to the information in the packets. Short of routing, all one has is quickly switchable circuits based on external configuration information ... useful, but miles short of where we are with non-optical. One is little more than a fancy patch panel; the other something that responds to the information in the signal.

To: DownSouth who wrote (35204)	11/23/2000 11:46:49 AM
From: John Stichnoth	Respond to of 54805

Re-reading my post, I realize it is (1) too Nortel-centric, and (2) a bit hypish itself (is that a word?). The conference that voop references in his post is very good listening, if anyone has a couple of hours, in setting the environment that all the fiber companies are operating in. (Of course it shows Nortel in a very good light.) My intent was to suggest that the technology overall seems to be moving forward successfully. Further evidence of the threat to the core router makers. Juniper will have a problem, I believe, as fiber systems (e.g. from Nortel, Avanex and JDSU, maybe Agilent, etc.) take steps up the capability ladder. Christensen's point is that there is a sudden cross-over effect from one technology to another, as the previously "not-good-enough" technology becomes acceptable, especially in light of other advantages it has. The advantage of all-optical is too familiar here to be worth repeating. The problems with it will likely eventually be solved. All of the sudden, sometime, all-optical will be capable of handling all of the core route-directing tasks. That seems to imply some redesign of the network itself--which Gilder envisions in discussing Avanex, for instance. When all of this happens, is the great question. From my recent reading, it appears to be getting considerably closer. And Happy Thanksgiving to all!

To: DownSouth who wrote (35204)	11/24/2000 10:41:56 AM
From: J Fieb	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

DownSouth, I just added this thread to my bookmarks and am reading the book now. I know you are a storage guy and that storage is discussed from time to time on this thread. QLGC is a fine company, but never mentioned as a gorilla candidate. But maybe if the Red Herring says it is possible, people will give the idea some consideration.... Pd 126 of Dec 18 Red Herring, article about emerging goliaths notes two companies. One of which is my beloved Qlogic. "companies that can sustain profit growth are developinng proprietary solutions to jams in the fastest growing markets in data production, delivery and intepretation" Qlogic is the company in the network to storage transmission space (my slant). This is a Yahoo post and I don't get the magazine. I haven't read the book yet so Goliath and Gorilla may be sililar, but not the same. And QLGC doesn't make proprietary solutions either.