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To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (88170)	11/23/2000 10:08:15 PM
From: Cooters	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

<<Most people I know are quite active with their 401k stash and will/do move into money market funds when the going gets rough. I have several acquaintances who's entire retirement account holdings are currently out of equities.>> Some yes, some no. The active 401K investors will move their money back into equities when the market "is doing better". Quite a stash of cash waiting to pounce on the market, IMHO. Cooters

To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (88170)	11/24/2000 12:04:23 AM
From: trilobyte	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Yes, it is indeed well known that when the going gets rough, most people head for the exits. It's also called: sell low, buy high. The downside risk at Naz=2750 is much smaller than it was at Naz=5300. Somehow, many (with vested interests?) would like us to believe the contrary. it's also well known that the lower the market goes, the louder you will hear voices calling for the imminent meltdown of equities and the economy. It just reinforces the prevalent trend but unfortunately carries little or no predictive value. finally, most people make their money from their hard work (not by stock market gains) and I think that most people here will agree that nearly everyone who wants to work in America is working. comparing the situation in 1929 to the one we have now may be an amusing exercise, but in the end, it is comparing oranges to apples: nothing useful will be learned. 1929 was a totally different era. as for Greenspan, he's reactive, that's all. He's just waiting for the long term bond rates to drop to adjust the short term rates. Unfortunately, he's screwed up in 1998 (should not have lowered rates, Asia was working itself out of its problems without that boost). He screwed up again in 1999 (should not have increased liquidity in the manner he did ahead of Y2K) and again in 2000 (the last 1/2 basis point rate hike was totally uncalled for and caused a precipitous drop in equities). Funny he's so revered by everyone. The longer the Naz bear lasts the more this unfortunate opinion will be questioned. Trilobyte

To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (88170)	11/24/2000 11:05:51 AM
From: Jordan Levitt	Respond to of 152472

You are right when you say that 401k does move out of equities and into money market and bonds etc...however it also moves back. My sense is that the move to money market has happened, and is waiting to go the other way. There is a a large short interest out there and something like $1.56 trillion in money market currently, there could well be a short squeeze and a buying panic that ensues when this thing ends. My four requirements for a significant rally, three of four would probably do it: 1) Settle the election...either way just settle it ! 2) Oil prices moderate 3) Fed signals either lower rates, or at minimum, moves to neutral bias 4)Get into next year. Everyone looks at "next years" earnings...once into next year, we begin to look at 2002 earnings. Prices have already come down, compressing p/e ratios, once we look at 2002 earnings it creates even more p/e compression, albeit psychologically. Here's hoping !