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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Hawkmoon who wrote (914)11/24/2000 12:37:54 AM
From: rajaggs  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
>> Not to mention the insane consumer spending leading to massive trade deficits - in the end will lead to a dollar collapse and further Fed tightening.<<

I always thought that it will take a major shift in confidence of foreigners in US dollar, to precipitate a collapse in value of US$. Would you agree with that.?

The consequences of a weaker US$ would be;
1-The US would be able to sell more goods abroad.
2-The US would be a less attractive market for foreign goods.
(1+2)- would reduce the US foreign trade deficit.
3-it would allow countries such as Korea & Japan to pay less for oil, which is priced in US$. Thus allowing them to keep buying foreign goods.

Most of the above seem to me, to be beneficial to the USA.
Care to comment on that and also what the downsides might be.??



To: Hawkmoon who wrote (914)11/24/2000 1:19:03 AM
From: Mama Bear  Respond to of 74559
 
"And Americans are saving. "

Really? So why is real estate equity declining, despite the fact that single family home prices are near all time highs?

realtytimes.com

Why will so many be declaring bankruptcy, if so many are saving?

smrresearch.com

Regards,

Barb



To: Hawkmoon who wrote (914)11/24/2000 12:04:36 PM
From: Gemlaoshi  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Ron,
If the trade deficit made your day, then you should absolutely love the latest Current Account data :) The Current Account data includes financial flows in addition to the trade flows.

It was down -$106.1B in 002Q (A new record!!) after being down -$101.5B in 00Q1.

dismalscientist.com

Enjoy,
Dave