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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (39933)	11/24/2000 8:06:56 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Hi Gottfried, OVERSOLD OVERRSOLD OVERSOLD !!!!! As we've discussed before,I had incorrectly expected a second leg up after the first top. Examples of the second legs occurred in Jan 96 and Feb 98. Not hard to look at the strength of the blow-off top that occurred in March 2000,and realize that a complete distribution occurred in one top( rather than need two tops to get the job done). Now Gottfried, what I want from your charts ,<VBG> is to point out if we get a quick pop up into say the 40's, or has the shakeout since march been so severe ,that TIME must go slowly to complete reaccumulation of stock into the strong hands. I'm guessing as to what degree of overhead resistance still exists. The slow case scenario is a slower resumption of price on a step-like consolidation pattern. This I believe has the highest price potential. It could well be associated with the general belief that the cyclicality of this sector will diminish,as orders for cap expansion become better planned (to reduce peaks and valleys).The servicing of a bigger machine base will also provide 10-15 % of service revenue.Not that 10-15 % is a lot - but the size of the machine base has now quadrupled and that's a nice help when times get tough. The other more volatile scenario is a quick spike up and resumption to new highs. It may look that way, but I wouldn't expect it to reach past highs.If this spike ocurrs, I'll study the past two secondary legs previously mentioned and be out before the % increase from the bottom to the top is reached. One thing for sure, these stocks are great values and I'm OK buying and holding for the long term. I am surprised that Cohu has plummeted from 62 to 12. That's severe - in particular with the industries predicted continued growth. If this retail tax selling period provides any more price dicsounts in the remainder of the year - I'm excited about buying more for a very dynamic long term portfolio.JMHO I've got my eye on : NVLS - in the 25-28, , LTXX in the 10-12, Cohu in the 11-12, Intest in the 7-8 but this stock looks the strongest of all the semi's, - maybe some dabbling with : LU-15-17 and NEWP ( don't laugh here @ 35-38 ). As always I've got my eyes on more than I can afford.HEHEHE Speaking of as always. - Thank You for your great charts!! I think this shakeout has provided an oustanding buying opportunity on what is still a GREAT GROWTH INDUSTRY. The level of noise pollution out there regarding the cycle being over is almost to the obscene.JMHO As Rogers from AMAT says "we're in between Wave 1 (resulting from the lack of cap. expansion in 97-98)and Wave 2 (the use of new materials) and Wave 3 ( 300 mm production roll out). This all leads me to a very positive future: PC sales will continue to be strong Internet infrastructure WILL continue to build out GLOBALLY New electronic gadgets proliferate - handspring/palm Wireless will become a reality just like cell phones have Fiber Optics will bring bandwidth to business centers Satellites will bring bandwidth to the consumer-(this is out there in time) Yes my future holds many more chips everywhere. The best part is : They ALL HAVE TO BE TESTED!! Hope you enjoyed your Thanksgiving. Let's stay confident during this indescision and get rich into the future!!! Bob

To: Gottfried who wrote (39933)	11/24/2000 9:27:13 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, thanks for posting the charts. I don't know how much seasonality one should read into the BTB charts. However, I notice that every year except '97 showed an upturn in the BTB by October. So far this year, the BTB pattern looks more like '97 than any other year. Estimates showing no growth for AMAT earnings for the next two quarters imply no growth in sales which would lead to a further reduction in BTB with continued pressure on share prices. My view is that AMAT shares are very attractive here but may become even more attractive after a year end rally.