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Technology Stocks : Juniper Networks - JNPR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (1926)	11/24/2000 10:58:12 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3350

Jack.. I don't think anyone has that data... not even CSCO. CSCO sells service contracts on networks which include equipment other than core/edge routers. So, while JNPR can attribute all service revenues to products in this single sector CSCO can not... What is JNPR's list price per port and average discount? If we knew that we can calculate the equipment only revenue contribution and then extrapolate backwards to get equipment only revenues for JNPR... then we'll get a better picture of market share gains. I'll tell you what is REALLY interesting.... and perhaps will give us some insight here. JNPR's ASP went from $122K/unit in 1998 to $208K/unit in 1999.... last quarter the ASP was $259K! That is up nearly 30% sequentially (from the Q2 quarter). CSCO's ASP was $212K up only 10% sequentially. More telling perhaps is the UNIT MARKET SHARE DATA... CSCO has 71% (down from 73.6% in Q2) and JNPR has 25% up from 23% in Q2. So the revenue data is clearly skewed by the service revenue... but, as I said, JNPR is gaining share.... simply not to the extent that the revenue numbers would seem to indicate. I would be remiss if I also didn't point out that in Q498 CSCO's unit market share was 72.8% and then sank to 72.4% in Q199.. it got as high as 80% in Q100 but the bottom line is that CSCO's unit market share has bounced around in this range for quite some time..... The press IMO is overstating what is going on in what is a relatively small sector of CSCO's markets. OG