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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tony Viola who wrote (119116)	11/24/2000 12:33:15 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: the AMD roadmap doesn't call for any 0.13 until late next year My WAG is that AMD could ramp up their .13 anytime, but right now the yields are such that they'd get few if any more good die at .18 than .13 (despite the smaller die size at .13). And any time you move to a new shrink or process, you risk something going wrong that leaves a 2 month hole in your production schedule by the time the problem is fully known. Since the surprise disappointment of P4, it turns out that AMD doesn't need anything faster than what it can get out of .18, so why not wait until they have more experience with .13 and can move to it risk free? Intel is in the opposite position. They are simply not competitive on .18 (a mass move to P4 on .18 would reduce Intel's production capacity by 2/3s - they'd be hard pressed to ship 25 million chips in a quarter, even with the new capacity they've just added). So Intel has to ramp their .13 ASAP and pray that the yields they get are significantly greater than zero. Maybe they'll get great yields on a new shrink on a completely new process technology. Otherwise, 2001 is going to be a very long year for Intel. JMHO, Dan