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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (112107)11/24/2000 9:40:25 PM
From: Victor Lazlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
<<So an oil cut-off from Iraq will cause crude prices to climb higher for everyone. >>

I would not assume that, and I am long energy stocks.

<<Which will divert some spending away from consumer goods in the US. Maybe 20 or 30 $Billion. >>

Where do you get those figures from? As a % of the avg American's energy budget, Iraq oil is likely a no-show. We import more energy in MBTUs from Canada than from any other country. Iraq oil output has an impact on crude futures for a couple of days, other than that, nada.

So many people switched to nat gas heat in the 1970s and 1980s that oil heat consumption has been greatly reduced. And all the elec plant now are being built for nat gas generation. So measured in impact to the US GDP, the impact is a lot less than it was in the 1980s and 1970s. Iraq is not really important.

Victor