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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ftth who wrote (9286)	11/25/2000 12:02:11 AM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 12823

" I'd say the MSO's have a vested interest in making sure the retail model for cable modem sales fails. They need to be completely in control of the subscriber additions and the rate they are added." Do you actually think that they are that calculating? Stated another way, are they admitting these inevitabilities "to themselves?" The 7-11 analogy was a fitting one, IMO. As a tech-head I have to admit that I feel a certain level of empathy for the design and engineering staff. A tremendous amount of time (as you noted) and work went into the HFC/DOCSIS model. As we contemplate a solution for the pending calamity we've come to call congestion, in the way of a Lightwire-like configuration (far fewer homes passed per node than current templates allow), we hear of cutbacks on HFC improvements by T. This is only a temporary state of affairs, they've stated. I'm not so sure about that. If they lose their momentum and their drive to do the right thing now, given T's present financial and structural dilemmas, upcoming quarters will be no less demanding and they will forego those improvements indefinitely. Especially if they get their initial subscriber numbers posted before the real crunch hits. Then they've got you. I'm already contemplating the ways in which the MSOs will resort to a 10GbE approach, probably by using some of those spare singlemode fibers in the distribution cable between the Head End and the field node. Of course, that's not where the real problems are. The root of HFC's problems, as it is now constituted, stem from a near-obsolete RF modulation scheme and black coax, in that order, and a spectrum plan that must, by design, match.

To: ftth who wrote (9286)	11/25/2000 8:58:48 AM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

ftth- Under the double line...was it your own words, or that of an author of some article? "They claim 14 million cable modem subs by 2004. What they fail to state is that using those numbers, and an average 6% current take rate for cable data service, somewhere in about 2002 the networks reach the MSO's max comfort level w/r/t percent take-rates (roughly 18 percent)." Now isn't too much demand a good problem to have? I don't quite understand why the cable plant can't be upgraded to something like Lightwire offers if indeed they end up signing up more $40/month subscribers than the current two-way HFC plant can handle. Thanks. -MikeM(From Florida)

To: ftth who wrote (9286)	11/27/2000 11:26:44 AM
From: justone	Respond to of 12823

Ftth: Ftth: Re: your predictions on HFC rollout I'd say the MSO's have a vested interest in making sure the retail model for cable modem sales fails. They need to be completely in control of the subscriber additions and the rate they are added. The retail model loses this control, but they are obliged to appear like they wholeheartedly support it. They will find a way to make it gracefully fail. They better. The retail model for the MSO's is sort of like having every 7-11 in town selling unlimited numbers of tickets to a basketball game in an arena that only holds a few thousand. The retail model will only work for FTTH/GbE, and even if the MSO’s began deploying this now, it will not be in place in time to avoid hitting the limits. " This wall is gonna be hit so watch carefully if you invest in related companies. I understand your concern that HFC may eventually become over utilized, but this is actually the goal of any business. I mean, can you have a 'better' problem than your airplane is full, or your ball park is full, or you finally have 100% market domination? This is service provider nirvana. The trick in most new telecommunication technology deployment is to generate enough revenue today to deploy more tomorrow. This was how cellular deployed, for example, with current customers paying for the build out of the new. One concern of 3G, for example, is that the build out may not go fast enough to pay for itself since existing 2G customers may be happy with their service. However, I don't see this for residential broadband. As a 10 month cable modem user I'm quite happy with the visit to the Wiz, self install, service, and PC/Tv interaction. I have an ATI all in wonder card and can watch TV while reading silicon investor posts, for example- why I do this I don't know- but its neat and you can't do that withal DSL or contention based 10G 'ethernet' protocols. However, it still seems that there is a lot of gold in that HFC fiber, even if it may someday be tapped out. The question of limits can be addressed by technology today- if there is money in it. Only be approaching a limit will the cable providers be motivated to expand bandwidth. Meanwhile, the money from cable data, packetcable voice, VOD and video conferencing over the next five years will support network expansion. Seems like a practical business model to me.