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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (5309)	11/25/2000 2:04:51 AM
From: Killswitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Based on this, and the fact that the NAZ is now over 2900 already, plus the fact that short ratios are very large right now (multi-day on average), it would seem there could be more than one more big melt-up on the way. Do you revise your prediction of this rally only going to 3200-ish?

To: J.T. who wrote (5309)	11/27/2000 10:27:41 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

JT, The Bears are going to get pounded in this counter-trend bounce into next week. I understand how you are using the Rydex figures to gain a short-term directional reading, but how do you put that direction into the context of a counter-trend? I.e., do you see the medium- or longer-term direction as downward (in spite of the short-term bullish posture you accurately predicted Wednesday), and if so, are you basing that on the Rydex figures or something else? One other question--you've mentioned the Rydex figures as mimicking the large speculators, who are countered by the commercial traders. Who exactly are these large speculators, and who are the commercial traders? I am trying to understand their difference in the financial food chain. TIA,

To: J.T. who wrote (5309)	11/28/2000 3:02:56 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Monday, November 27th: Regular Series: SPX Long - NOVA 453.4 Million SPX Short- URSA 254.1 Million NDX Long - OTC 2,219 BILLION NDX Short- Arktos 97.9 Million XAU Precious Metals 32.9 Million Biotechnology 600 Million Money Market 1.233 BILLION ******************************************* Dynamic Series (200% correlation) SPX Long - TITAN 92.9 Million SPX Short- TEMPEST 7.8 Million NDX Long - VELOCITY 109.6 Million NDX Short- VENTURE 29.6 Million ******************************************* 1)This is not what I wanted to see. The money wants to get long witness the quick shift to both SPX long funds. I am not so much concerned with NOVA yet as we have elasticity here. It is the dramatic move back long in TITAN the hot money that concerns me. Right back banging on 100 mill in total assets again. To make matters more complicated, SPX short funds are lifeless and not in play. This is not healthy over the medium and long term. Can we still rally? Absolutely. But the upside is limited to this SPX 1,400- 1,415 level 1 close or intraday penetration and I would sell into the rally. SPX closed at SPX 1,349. 2)NDX Long Funds tell a more fragmented story. NDX Long OTC still below 2.4 Bill in assets suggests we can achieve NDX 3,180 - 3,250 level. But NDX Long TITAN back above 100 + mill suggests chances that upside targets beyond this level are limited at best. Witness today how the money gets long as the NDX gives back some of Fridays 6%+ gains. And both short fund total assets in NDX decreased as the NDX closed lower. This is a Bearish divergence signal. NDX closed at NDX 2,769. 3)XAU showing life again after being down 1 day on friday. XAU close to its highest close since October 12th - Up 5.2% to close at XAU 46.85. Tomorrow is a critical day for the XAU that it validates todays break-out is not a one day false break. With the dollar breaking down today - chances are good it can get follow thru. Still long 50% NDX and SPX. Best Regards, J.T.