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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Ohlendorf who wrote (20474)	11/25/2000 12:10:27 PM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 275872

Re: If it would be correct their ASP would by >$90 Substantial discounts are given off the "official" list prices for quantity, terms, advertising, etc. Re: What happens to the ramp up if they equip the rest of the Fab with 0.13m tools According to what I've seen, the FAB is almost entirely .13 tools now. The AMD/Motorola/ASM .13 process uses the 248nm tools that have been installed in Dresden from the beginning. Steppers received since around June have been equipped for .13 while the few steppers in place prior to this summer will need to be retrofitted. Sanders said in the last conference call that they weren't happy with yields after cleaning/polishing yet, so it's quite possible that the final process will require some new equipment. But the bulk of the equipment at Dresden has always been the final .13 tools. What effect will have the Mustang core (Palominos and Morgans) on Athlon production. I guess this implies some kind of transition and thus a reduced ramp up speed? The ramp up speed wouldn't be affected, but it's always a risk when a new layout is introduced. Fortunately, since AMD is currently under no pressure from Intel, they'll be taking things very slowly and cautiously. It is unlikely that they'll have the sort of yield crash Intel suffered with the second iteration of the Coppermine stepping. Intel, on the other hand continues to be pushed very hard, and has no choice but to rush everything out the door with little testing and just hope for no more recalls, yield crashes, etc. Regards, Dan

To: Michael Ohlendorf who wrote (20474)	11/25/2000 1:46:48 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

Michael: Responses "Your Q4 guess can not be correct. If it would be correct their ASP would by >$90. However, they repeatedly said ASP would be howering around $90 for the foreseeable future." Hard to anticipate ASP accurately, particularly when AMD is on such a steep product evolutionary curve...My guess is that $90 is the baseline or most conservative estimate, though, given all those 1 gigs in the mix and firming 900 MHz pricing... Concerns for Q4: - It looks like they are heavily giving away the Durons to make up for the high Mobo costs... What makes you think they are giving them away...They look like a "hot item" on Peter's list out of Germany... - They actually did not produce as many Athlons as they would have liked to because of the Athlon production transition from Austin to Dresden. This is particularly bad considering the very high demand for the Athlons. Once again, very difficult to anticipate demand in AMD's current product evolutionary phase (I mean look at INTC's experience with P4)...That Athlon demand is hot cannot be construed negatively in any way and bodes exceedingly well for the 1.2 gig Athy/DDR prospects... - They probably even produced more Durons than Athlons (D: ~3.5 Mio, A: ~3.2 Mio) even if the Q3 production extrapolation would suggest the contrary... Maybe, maybe not...Said they'd ship 8 to 9 million microprocessors in Q4...My guess is they will do just that and that should be considered, once again, excellent management performance...If 2 million or more are 1 gig's, I think we shareholders all have cause to celebrate as it sets the stage for an even more successful Y2001... - Dresden ramp up concern. Dresden is only at 30% of capacity at end of Q4. What happens to the ramp up if the equip the rest of the Fab with 0.13m tools to make the hammer production for Q4 2001 possible. That would have a serious impact on their Athlon ramp up capability wouldn't it ? Not sure about you 30% number. Ramping seems to be accelerating as we speak and I thought someone mentioned in the conference call somewhere around 50% at end of Q4...In any event, Y2001 plan calls for about 40 million microprocessors vs. 27 to 28 million in Y2000. To achieve that, fab 30 will need to utilize about 35% capacity on average...Just don't see that being a huge problem... - What effect will have the Mustang core (Palominos and Morgans) on Athlon production. I guess this implies some kind of transition and thus a reduced ramp up speed ? Zero effect as far as I can ascertain unless they are so wildly successful in the marketplace that they cut into the Athlon's marketshare.