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To: denizen48 who wrote (945)	11/25/2000 3:25:55 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 74559

Just what is far fetched about his logic and what is questionable about his math..... an example or two would help me understand? thanks in advance. J

To: denizen48 who wrote (945)	11/25/2000 5:32:02 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

If you imagine that this thread is a theater, and that yelling "fire" in it will set off a fatal stampede for the exits, perhaps we ought to charge for our services as Abby Cohen does for hers. There is, however, no indicator more clear that panic is about to spread, than your post. The last time I heard this kind of tone was in late 1998, just before the LCTM crisis and just before Greenspan and other bankers stepped in to rescue it. Panicky bull market enthusiasts invade a thread like this the way bible-thumping fundamentalist sectarians might invade a classroom where evolution was being taught. This week's Barrons has two or three fairly good articles on the withdrawal of $8.5 billion from mutual funds (equal to October's entire intake) in the last four trading days, the probable fall of the dollar eventually, and other subjects. Revised addition: I am not surprised to see another Jay Chen-Bashing post following the one I replied to. My understanding is that up and down the West Coast there are many investors looking at portfolios that have given up hundreds of thousands of dollars in value. Also, electric and gas bills in California are for the time being going to be double and triple what they are elsewhere in the country. We will see what happens next. It seems probable that many companies will fail and that many stock options even in surviving companies will become worthless.

To: denizen48 who wrote (945)	11/25/2000 8:29:43 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Harry, I agree with you. My logic does seem far fetched. My math is questionable; but answerable with a Hewlett Packard financial calculator. On everymen, given that there is no pervasive fear as yet, I naturally thought that the everyman investor is seeing something very different than the typical offshore investors who are closer to the entrance to the abyss. Some onshore investors who invests via offshore platforms, like Soros, Robertson seem to see matters more alarmingly. I yelled fire back in December because I saw the smoke in November, and I knew it was not time for dinner yet. Call it a public service. I do not agree with Ms. Cohen and Mr. Applegate's approach ... i.e. "... I must look pretty stupid since March, but now is a time to buy again ...". It is not clear to me that these gurus will not be called to testify in front of the senators in the future. We know the script. On the grandiose charge, you are again correct, else the thread is missing the extra 5% secret sauce. I will stop the dramatics now as I have already made my points, leaving the rest to time. I will now pay attention to the more important issue of how everyone on this thread intends to make money - favorite past time. To close out the minor issue of security for private Philippines island, you again correctly point out that a private army is absolutely necessary. The troops, arms, fuel, and transport equipment (mostly home made banca boats) cost no more than a good alarm service contract and life insurance policy in HK, and can generate its own upkeep via dive shop and lodging operation or via pearl farming. I only used the Philippines as an example. A oil reserve rich piece of farmland in the US will do even better, but requires a legal troop to defend one's right to development, costing somewhat more than the troops in the tropics. All in good fun and not so serious. Chugs, Jay