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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gopher Broke who wrote (20515)	11/25/2000 6:52:18 PM
From: fyodor_	Respond to of 275872

<Gopher: I think we may find P4 does not scale too well until 3Q 2001 and .13 process arrives> Just like the Athlon, the P4 is getting very close to some limits where heat dissipation are concerned. Using standard passive elements, coupled with only a fan, there are some severe problems removing the heat from processors (esp. socket-). Recent speculation that AMD only managed to reduce heat dissipation by 20% in the mustang core over the TBird, doesn't bode well for AMD's ability to scale Palomino steadily until a .13mu shrink comes along. To follow Moore's Law, you have to increase the frequency by just over 40% per 9 months [it should be noted that Moore's Law as he stated it had nothing at all to do with frequency]. That puts AMD at 1.7GHz for Q3 next year. With only a 20% reduction in heat dissipation, that would put a 1.7GHz Palomino at around 80W. I'm not convinced that it's realistic to remove that much heat with conventional means. This also explains why I have been saying that AMD needs to get the heat dissipation down by at least 30% to manage a reasonable frequency ramp. Of course, with enough IPC improvements in the Athlon, AMD may not need 1.7GHz before .13mu. -fyo