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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (36347)	11/25/2000 9:22:43 PM
From: NucTrader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Hope you're right Dennis, as I sold the rally Friday and would like a great buy-in. Given the fact that a down day Monday is what I'd prefer, I think it's also possible that...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=14879072

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (36347)	11/25/2000 9:55:13 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

I am just posting to you since you were the unfortunate last guy here. <ggg> I will post more later when I get more time but I did just post this on another thread so thought I would put it here for the time being also for reasons I mention later....... I have two indicators flashing probable reversals early next week, probably Tuesday but the rest of my stuff is bullish. The OEX missed my low target by 5 points which is close enough for me and the NDX nailed it just right with only a slight over shoot. I may just hedge or close out some longs on Monday to play it safe during the retrace Tuesday. I only hope that the Whitewater absentee ballots ( Found 500 Gore votes in a cabinet this weekend) don't tank us right out of the gate Monday AM. Basically, if that doesn't affect us, I see us up Monday and possibly into Tuesday AM then a retrace. I also have sells in most of the defensive issues that were flocked to as people were fleeing technology stocks. I have sells on PG, CAT, ADM etc and I have no idea why as I hate them FA wise but I am getting a lot of either buy signals or over sold signals on financial stocks like JPM, PVN etc. I will likely ignore those though as I see the risk of some banks blowing up with bad credit risk and think the credit card companies are getting desperate for customers as my daily mailers have increased to an average 6 - 7 a day now from the usual 2-3. My dog and fish haven't received any yet though so maybe we aren't quite at a top yet. My two year old son got a 0% interest offer a few months ago though so we must be getting close. I want to at least get something posted before futures open so I don't get accused of waiting to post on purpose and not because of the turkey induced slumber I actually experienced Thursday. I was PMed about a post attempting to discredit myself and Don. I think Don's calls speak for themselves but since I don't post here as much as I used to... Of course the trendlines on my charts have not changed in weeks and the projections for the lows last week were made in plenty advance. For anyone that doubts this and wants to listen to the other idiot. I offer this from our site. Note the time of the posting before the market opened on Tuesday giving two days to catch the bottom. By L3_Aka_L3 on Tuesday, November 21, 2000 - 12:50 am: Edit Challo - Yes, the QQQ would have to be lower if those levels are hit on the heavy weight stocks. Although that is about where I would like to see them, I doubt they will get that low. The maniacs will not be denied and are dipping all the way down. Did you see NTAP and MU today. NTAP is somewhat expected as it bounced off of an old fork top tine that goes back years that I don't show in my posted chart. However the put call ratio was also unbelievable. A lot of calls being bought. No one believes we can go down and I have to admit, I too am starting to get real antsy. I plan on adding more cash to my kids account tomorrow so they can start loading up for the long term soon. I have had thier accounts in Money Market for the last 9 months or so and am now about to finally get them back in. (I can trade my account faster than theirs so I trade thier stuff a lot slower and more of mid term type position trades versus my hit and run style) I don't think we are quite at a bottom yet but I do think we are getting closer. I have been targeting the NDX 2500 - 2700 level for over 6 months and we are finally almost there. I am targeting about 695 OEX, 10300 DOW, 1320 SPX short term but am a bit concerned that the US DOllar is just not falling in sync. I would have liked everything to line up a bit better and it still doesn't "feel" like a bottom yet. Still I think Clinton does not want to be leaving in 2 months with a market that is down 40% and since we are also in a time frame that historically goes up, I would imagine a flood of liquidity is about to hit the street and some egg nog induced buying will start fairly soon. -ggg- Our indicator is not in buy territory yet but should get close tomorrow if we head down like today. Unfortunately, it appears the bullish trend I expected to last a while fell apart and that we are in a new downtrend. Many conflicting signals and still no fear which worries more than anything else. I am noticing that the boards are getting quieter as I think many investors are becoming disalusioned, wiped out or just plain losing interest. Other areas of concern are a potential buy singal as of tonight on the XAU which also hints of upcoming dollar weakness. Defense is still king with ADM, MO etc still drawing buys as tech slides and as I mentioned before the leader techs are just now starting to show weakness. There is much more potential damage possible in those but most of the already beaten up ones didn't do too bad today. AMAT held as did many of the lower PE stocks. Telecom is still weak and internets along with B2B got slammed hard though. I can't keep my eyes open so I am cutting this off. Basically my strategy is to start my kids leggin in here with index tracking vehicles such as DIA, SPY and XLK/QQQ. In my own account, I will wait for better signals but will be nibbling on some gold shares and a few select beat up techs as values start to show. I may hedge a bit by starting to cover some of my banking shorts and start shorting Defense stocks instead. Lockheed, BA, TRU etc are all getting a bit ridiculous in their valuations and I doubt either candidate will be able to do much with a lame duck even distribution congress. Good Luck, Lee marketswing.com Note the OEX low was 700 versus 695 target, SPX was 1322 versus 1320 target and I was off big on the DOW as I was targeting 10300 and we only got down to 10399. The line on my NDX chart has been at 2670 for the last month and we hit a low Wednesday of 2667 so excuse me for missing by 3 points NDX and 2 points SPX etc in multi hundred point declines. Wednesday did indeed produce the buy signal in our indicator since it was down hard two days later and the other chart I posted here also gave the buy signal on Wednesday. Thus there was two days warning to buy Wednesday's dip. The XAU did move up nicely and I still did close my finnancial shorts as I posted today that the Financials are threatening to move up now TA wise. I passed on defense though and will likely hit PG and CAT instead due to currency concerns but haven't made up my mind yet. Sorry to make this long post but I am getting sick of the postings of someone and after writing a few really nasty posts in response and tossing them, this was the nicest way I could respond although the others were probably a better read. <ggg> PS - Keeping track of the Fund trades takes less than 60 seconds so lame excuse dude. Good Luck, Lee

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (36347)	11/26/2000 12:57:30 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Dennis, >>>> I think Minday will be a hard down, as the Prez thing will go at least 2 more trading weeeks. <<<< Although I fully believe that the election issue is effecting the market, Im really not convinced that it is the only factor, and may not even be the most important factor. Im not saying that the election issue didnt exaggerate the downside and wont limit the upside, but when I looked at the charts carefully, I really didnt find anything that I could spot that would be considered an anomoly. The one big down day at electioned time was larger than previous down days but wasnt at extremes, like double the size. Prior to the election the market was already heading down and I believe a descending triangle was already forming prior to the election. Of course the indecision of the election added negativity to the market, but the market was already negative at the time. Since the election the NDX declined about 18% more, and yes some of that 18% was due to the indecision, but I would not say all of it and maybe even not most of it. Earning warnings are also a major factor recently. I do believe that there will be a retest of the 2667 level on the NDX. Will it come immediately or later, I dont know. However, until I see an actual break below 2667 or a major deterioration in the market internals, I still feel that 2667 still has a good chance of holding. seeya