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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Trader who wrote (39980)	11/25/2000 9:24:46 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

John, from the BW interview >Q: Any thoughts on Applied Materials ( AMAT )? A: This stock epitomizes the problem that the market is facing right now. Today, they announced terrific earnings and revenues, but gave guidance lower for the next quarter, which is the problem that high-tech investors have been facing from stocks over and over during the past month and a half. The chart on AMAT looks as if the stock has entered an area of a solid base. However, technical risk runs all the way down to 27. This is another stock that should attract bargain-hunters and momentum-players, and could tack on $6 to $8 in a relief rally.< A few weeks ago we had a discussion on the price bottom and came up with the high twenties also. Gottfried

To: John Trader who wrote (39980)	11/25/2000 10:57:41 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

The timing of the peaks and troughs of the cycles is controlled entirely by the fundamentals (this may not be obvious until months after the turn). But the amplitude of the waves is a function of momentum investors piling in and out. Totally emotional. So, I follow the semi industry (margins, inventories, etc.), to try and time the peaks and troughs. But, I look to market sentiment to try and guess how wild the euphoria will get, and how deep the despair. My track record is, I've done a pretty good job at guessing the bottoms, and a pretty bad job of guessing the tops. No, I haven't read the Dent book. The baby boom demographics are strictly a U.S. event, not global. And the Global Village is a reality, with frictionless movements of capital, information, labor, and goods. AMAT is an excellent example of this. The majority of sales (and therefore profits) are foreign sales. And those semi-equip sales are dependant on chip sales, with all the big semi companies manufacturing and selling globally. The stock market shows the same globalization. We are rapidly moving to a single global stock market, with exchanges in the U.S., Europe, and Asia all listing all the big companies, and 24 hour trading. U.S. demographics don't matter.