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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Voltaire who wrote (19462)	11/26/2000 1:23:05 AM
From: techguerrilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

"Ultimate test" was wrong language You and Bonnie are friends of mine. End of subject. I will continue to read the Mod Porch and, at times, participate. When push comes to shove, though, especially in these strange "Naz" times, I simply have very little constuctive to add. My two cents on the "Naz" these days is that the fear generated this year is causing the entire tech sector's high valuations to undergo a reanalysis. Anything can happen in the next few months. Qualcomm's P/E ratio right now is 100, while NTAP's is 267 and BRCD's is 517. The latter two stocks looked incredibly powerful just a few months ago. But NTAP has shot down like a cannon to 63, while BRCD (a high recently of 267) has "retraced" to 190. Any sector that has companies with P/E ratios over 100 can get slammed by the analysts at the drop of a hat. A serious "Naz" recovery may be quite a ways down the line. I personally won't believe a recovery is going to be healthily quantifiable until we have 40 to 50 consecutive trading days in which the "Naz" comp stays above 3500. Until then, huge amounts of conservative cash are going to remain fearfully on the sidelines. It is getting too scary for all but the most adventurous investors even to target "entry points" in this market. I think INTC "warning" was the catalyst to the "mess." The election fiasco has done nothing to soothe fragile public nerves. Greenspan should be whipped for adding the liquidity late last year that caused the hoodwink runup in the "Naz" comp to 5000. We are feeling the problems caused by its subsequent withdrawal having occurred in conjunction with the interest rate increases this year. This market is now going to require some healing. In the meantime, I will simply stick with my solid QCOM stock and Jan35's. In addition, maybe we'll get some exciting news in the world of RMBS that will help my Jan70's get back above water. JDSU? "Say goodnight, Gracie!" Dec90's don't have enough time anymore. That SDLI merger was amateurishly handled. Period. Punto. Amen. Your friend, /john