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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stu E. who wrote (11007)	11/26/2000 5:23:33 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11555

I agree with your view. But I see a rocky road for the tech stocks for the next few months. The semiconductor sector is likely to be weighted down by a general downturn in the tech sector brought about by a continued devaluation of the fiber-telecomms and other still high value sectors. We may get a short term rally but I expect that rally to fail as reports of lowered earnings expectations filter in. In a couple more weeks we will be into the earnings warning period once again. Stocks trading at 80, 100, or 300+ multiples obviously anticipate rapid growth (still priced almost to perfection) and continued news that the economy and particular markets are slowing will be pricking the bubble. In summary, as good as IDTI looks it is not entirely immune to the tech stock market environment, which I expect to be negative. During the latest reported period 8 billion flowed out of mutual funds, particularly out of tech and aggressive growth funds, and into money markets (27 bil. gain). Although this can eventually turn into a contrary indicator as liquidity builds up, there must be some offsetting catalyst to turn the tide. The resolution of the presidential disgrace should create a relief rally but it won't change the underlying picture to restore confidence that it is good for greed to invest in the flying pig stock categories. It is very much a "trader's market". For instance, I traded JNPR last week when it hit support at the 110 level. I will short stocks in the fiber-telecom sector as they fail off of resistance levels and cover them as they near support levels. I will also short them if they fail their support levels. For long-term investors, I would hold IDTI for 50%+ gains over the next 12 months. If your thinking is shorter term, I would consider selling IDTI if it fails to hold above 40 and then buy it back lower.