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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 100cfm who wrote (35292)	11/26/2000 6:46:21 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

100, << Wcdma seems to be very nebulous due to the limited info that is available as compared to cdma2000 >> There is a wealth of information about UMTS available. , and it has been available longer than cdma2000, because the standard has been in development longer. The complete 'R99' standard and all the specifications that comprise it are freely available on the 3GPP web site, and have been for some time. There is an excellent Access database that catalogues the various components. << It seems that alot of new product is coming out in q1 01 which will make q2 and beyond very interesting. IJ said that 2nd half of 02 will have strong growth >> Lots of good things coming for 2nd half of the fiscal and even more, I think) for 2nd half of the calendar (and beyond). << Maybe he forsees alot of issues being settle by June of 01 >> I think. An important milestone will be the 1xEV-DO specification and IMT-2000 incorporation. << When DOCOMO does come out with their system, will we be able to know what it is actually and what it can and can't do? >> Hard to say. probably not as much as we'd like initially. << At least cdma2000 is cdma 2000 and it's release date will be very close to what Q announces >> cdma2000 is in phased development just like UMTS. We have had two significant releases. We will have more. << As of now I consider commercial availability of WCDMA as of when Q says their WCDMA chips are available in commercial quantities. As of now that will be 3q 01. What the carriers do or don't do or can or cannot do with it at that time is another story. >> I disagree with this one. We can agree to disagree, I hope <g>. By my definition, commercial availability of WCDMA will take place when infra and handsets ready for commercial use ship, (regardless of whose chips are in BSC's or handsets - and I hope they are Qualcomm's). Handsets are always last. WCDMA might need QCOM's chips but they need other goodies if they are going to work. The GSM community can not even get GPRS handsets out the door. << Can Q simply decide to join the 3GPP or do they have to be voted in or approved like a country clup membership? >> CDG (and Qualcomm) were initially denied membership in 3GPP because they wanted a single CDMA standard. They formed 3GPP2. In February they were tentatively invited to join 3GPP if they would openly support all modes of CDMA. It appears they have started to do this and have been doing so for some time. In July a stronger invitation was given to join with acknowledgement that support was being delivered. It appears that this might be in progress. Qualcomm may well have sound strategic reasons for not doing this too quickly. Perhaps they feel they should complete 1xEV-DO standardization in 3GPP2 first. This makes sense to me. << Q in 3GPP would be huge, no? >> I have stated that sentiment here before and supplied my rationale. I accede to the judgement of Qualcomm's leadership to decide when the proper time to join will be. - Eric -