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To: Tom Pulley who wrote (4354)11/26/2000 8:48:48 PM
From: D. Newberry  Respond to of 10714
 
Hi Tom,

Nice post amid all the doom and gloom. I agree, long term holders should feel pretty good about the future.

I share your enthusiasm for Cree, and have a substantial holding in the company myself. I would caution, however, to remember that this company is very young and still a shiny pebble. Lots can go wrong as this story unfolds, so invest accordingly.

Regards,

DN



To: Tom Pulley who wrote (4354)11/26/2000 9:21:15 PM
From: pompsander  Respond to of 10714
 
Hi Tom: I am a CREE bull and very hopeful for the future. However, as with any great story, lots can go wrong. Let's look at the possibilities in the "short term".

1. The world economy is slowing. This could impact the market for LEDs as fewer products are produced which use them. Cases in point: Fewer auto sales are forecast for next year. Cell phone handsets (especially in the high end) are also slowing from projected levels of a few months ago. Cree will be trying to get a larger market share in a weakening market for these products. Same could hold true for other forms of electronics that use LEDS.

2. Some of the 160 million or so in sales orders could be cancelled due to economic conditions. This would hurt the stock price short term. Cree may be able to replace these sales, but immediate reaction would be negative.

3. CREE could have some problems bringing the new production facilities on line. Even a few weeks delay could impact production outlook.

4. Migration to the 3 inch wafer could continue to go more slowly than management would like.

5. The impact of CREE's recent acquisiton, while hoped to be accretive in the near future, appears dilutive at present. Again...a great long term move, but short term could impact the share price in a negative manner.

6. If the RF products do not roll out as assumed, the view of CREE as a pony with one good trick(LEDs) and one failed trick ("fake diamonds") could impact perceptions.

7. The market is scitzo right now anyway. However, it is really scitzo on CREE. Is it a semiconductor company? An optical play? A semiconductor equipment company? An electronics company? As each sector gets punched around, CREE reacts.

8. CREE's management has been solid and consistent. If any of the major players were to leave....

9. CREE's balance sheet is terrific. However, if it begins to degrade due to weakening margins, inventory buildups (beyond current levels)etc., well, you get the picture.

Anyway, a good CREEtin can provide solid responses to each of these concerns. CREE now trades at pretty reasonable levels for a growth company. Its PEG ratios is very good, but the market does not seem to value solid growth quite as much now as it did six months ago.

Anyway, I think the long term story is great. However, I would not be surprised to see more bumps in the road as we go along.



To: Tom Pulley who wrote (4354)11/27/2000 11:27:25 AM
From: Toby Zidle  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10714
 
"This looks too good to be true. Can anyone find a problem with this picture."

That IS the problem. That old saying: "If something looks to good to be true, it usually IS too good to be true." Typically, this is used with reference to con games and penny stocks, but there's no reason it wouldn't apply to CREE as well.