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Biotech / Medical : GUMM - Eliminate the Common Cold -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bo Didley who wrote (3344)	11/26/2000 7:10:27 PM
From: StockDung	Respond to of 5582

Just what the World needs, another spammer on the SI Tout threads. Reading your profile you say "Network of other Money Managers who "share" their trades." Member 2362403 What a Joke Waiting for the Judgment Day!!

To: Bo Didley who wrote (3344)	11/27/2000 3:44:38 PM
From: Sir Auric Goldfinger	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5582

A new use for ZINc that might be useful to GUMM longs: "JOHNS HOPKINS SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH: ZINC SUPPLEMENTS 11/27/0 10:41 (New York) in Combating Diarrhea To: National Desk, Health Reporter Contact: Kathy Moore or Ming Tai, 410-955-6878 or paffairs(At)jhsph.edu, both of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health BALTIMORE, Md., Nov. 27 /U.S. Newswire/ -- Researchers at the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health have found that zinc supplements help children suffering from acute and persistent diarrhea significantly reduce the duration of their symptoms. [or they can just sell the stok, LOL] The study can be found in the December 2000 issue of the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. ``Diarrhea is a very serious public health problem in developing countries, resulting in millions of deaths each year. Those who survive are often left with malnutrition. This study was important because it measures the effect of supplemental zinc given in conjunction with oral rehydration therapy during the recovery from acute or persistent diarrhea,'' said study co-coordinator Robert Black, MD, MPH, professor and chair, International Health, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health. The researchers analyzed ten randomized, controlled studies that had assessed the therapeutic benefit of zinc supplements in children under age five. In the case of the acute-diarrhea trials, diarrhea was defined as three or four loose stools in a 24-hour period. For persistent diarrhea, the original trials' definitions for diarrhea and recovery were retained. All trials used the standard World Health Organization recommendations for fluid and dietary case management of diarrhea. The researchers divided the participants of all the reviewed studies into subgroups according to sex, age, weight-for-height, and initial plasma zinc concentration, and then evaluated the overall effect of zinc on each group. Results of the study showed that the children who were given a zinc supplement during the acute-diarrhea trials were 15 percent less likely than controls to still have diarrhea by a given day; children in the persistent-diarrhea trials had a 24 percent lower risk of the diarrhea continuing. The authors said their meta-analysis showed that zinc apparently offers comparable benefits to all subgroups, a finding that indicates the nutrient needn't be aimed only at certain narrow populations but is feasible for wide use in the developing world. Although future studies are still needed to examine the effect of zinc supplementation on other measures of severity, such as diarrheal output, occurrence of dehydration, treatment failure, or death, the researchers believe attention should now focus on the best means of providing zinc during diarrhea, as well as on other ways to increase the zinc intake of children in developing countries. ------ This study was supported by the Johns Hopkins Family Health and Child Survival Cooperative Agreement with the U.S. Agency for International Development, by the World Health Organization's Division of Child Health and Development, and by the Rockefeller Foundation's Bellagio Study and Conference Center. For a complete list of Johns Hopkins School of Public Health press releases, go to jhsph.edu KEYWORDS: HEALTH -0-

To: Bo Didley who wrote (3344)	11/30/2000 12:48:29 AM
From: Bo Didley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5582

<font color=red>Research from a long, $33 - $38 / share Re: Reply to proveittome Part 4 (last) by: makemilns (38/M) 11/26/00 2:40 pm Msg: 41119 of 41131 Zicam: ANNUAL analysis [fiscal year 2001]. Based on $10 million in advertising, $4 million in other operating expenses, $1 million in R&D, and 72% gross margin, Gel Tech would contribute the following profit to Gum Tech at various sales levels: Sales (million)-------------Profit (per share) $21.5----------------------- break-even $25.0-----------------------$0.23 $30.0-----------------------$0.51 $35.0-----------------------$0.78 $40.0-----------------------$1.06 Every $5.0 million in sales adds $0.28 per share to earnings. You can use your own judgement on how much they will sell annually. Despite the delay, I still think that they will sell Zicam outside the US. I don’t think it is unreasonable to expect Gel Tech to sell $25 million to $35 million in Zicam in 2001. If you assume $30 million, the profit to Gum Tech would be 51 cents per share. If you add in 60 cents per share from the gum business, total profits in 2001 would be $1.11 per share. Based on a forward PE of 30, the stock would be worth $33 one year forward. If you add in even only $5 per share for the value of the joint venture with Swedish Match, the one year forward value is $38. If you discount that value back one year at a rate even as high as 25%, the stock would be worth 30 today. The reason it isn’t trading there is due to a combination of factors including a lousy market, rising short interest, uncertainty regarding sales of Zicam, uncertainty regarding the timing of and magnitude of dental gum sales to the large consumer products company, and uncertainty regarding sales of nicotine gum. If any reputable analyst other than Gunn Allen, put out an estimate such as mine, the stock would trade much higher than it is now. One day soon they might. In the meantime, I believe that the stock will hold above major support in the 10 area and anyone who is short today and doesn’t cover will regret it. By the time you see two consecutive quarters of positive cash flow, I think that the stock will trade two to three times today’s price. Good luck.