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To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (112153)	11/26/2000 10:45:01 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

Victor: A couple of points -- Americans have trouble focusing on more than one issue at a time. We have been obsessed by the elections and have ignored energy for a few weeks. By the first week of December it is very possible that oil will again be at center stage. Oil is now $35 dollar per barrel, an indication of tight supply. When supplies are tight, small changes in supply have an outsized impact. I said nothing about how long the impact would last. If Iraq shuts down -- and that is clearly possible given their negotiations with the UN for arms control inspection "relief" -- then a price jump to anywhere between 40 to 60 dollars per barrel is possible on the spot market. A jump of that magnitude would have a spill-over effect on all energy markets and would spook the stock market in a big way -- that is it.