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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: debby who wrote (35344)	11/27/2000 2:29:04 AM
From: kumar	Respond to of 54805

I have been thinking of taking a cash advance on my credit card and buying some great beaten down stocks. Please reconsider. cheers, kumar

To: debby who wrote (35344)	11/27/2000 3:09:21 AM
From: tinkershaw	Respond to of 54805

I have been thinking of taking a cash advance on my credit card and buying some great beaten down stocks I concur, don't. I've done many a bankruptcy for clients in the past. The credit card trap is insidious. It takes 11 years to re-pay a credit card if you just make minimum payments. To borrow from John Mellencamp, it is the bill that kills. Tinker Excessive greed will get you everytime. The market is cruel, merciless temptress that dishes out as much as it gives. I do think that a little bit of margin (25% at what seem to be market bottoms AT MOST, I mean at most) or use of LEAPS, 2003 LEAPS, is a much, much, much better way to go than cash advance off the credit card. I'm not recommending the use of margin or LEAPS, that is up to you, but I am stating that margin and LEAPS are superior to cash advances off of the credit card if you must choose one method over the other. P.S. I am gaining my optimism back again about the market, but I really don't think it will have a long-term sustained rally again until the market senses the turn of the business cycle from current slow-down to bottom. This bottom will probably be accompnied by an interest rate cut and continuing low inflation. So lets not lose our head in optimism yet. Yes, this presidential debacle is exaggerating market uncertainty, but the fundamental reason for the current drop is a slowing economy with an uncertain near-term future. Will this be another 70s stagflation cycle? Another 1991 recession? Or will it be a softlanding. I think the market is uncertain as to the answer. So don't get cocky. This aside, long-term, I think we are all darn certain of where these hyper-growth G&K markets are going, but the key is, it might take 6 months or longer to get back into rational forethought. So nobody do anything crazy:)

To: debby who wrote (35344)	11/27/2000 3:38:12 AM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

no, no, no, no, no, no, and no! :0) debby, if there's one thing I've learned over the last year, it's that those boring old farts who keep repeating that "you cannot predict the market in the short term" are correct. What this means is that no matter where things are at any point, they can always go pretty far in either direction pretty quickly--and these days, often will. In the looooong run, though, the trend will almost certainly be upward. Moreover, credit card debt is about the worst deal in the world, so getting out of it rather than getting into it should be your primary concern (see the Motley Fool website for general tips). So--in the short run, everything is a crap shoot, and credit card debt is bad news. Would you borrow on your credit card to go to Vegas? If yes, then you and Id should get together for some rollicking good times. If no, then don't pay substantial vigorish to play your hunch about the market's next twists and turns. Instead, invest with only those dollars you won't need for a while, and invest in instruments that ensure you'll be able to ride out any short-term dips with serenity. That means common stock without too much margin (and perhaps, if you're quite risk and volatility tolerant, a few LEAPS). Our punishment for being such irresponsible newbie schmucks is that we have to sit out this particular buying opportunity. But if we play our cards right and avoid too many mistakes due to stupidity and impatience, we should get to have fun along with the others the next time around--and there will, indeed, be a next time, sometime down the road. Maturity sucks, but it pays off in the end, and with a lot less strife and danger along the way. tekboy/Ares@orsoI'vebeentold.com