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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joshua Corbin who wrote (35355)	11/27/2000 5:58:04 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

The corollary to this is that any strategy for beating the market will be eventually arbitraged -- or gets priced into the equities involved. I've never agreed with that idea. In my mind, the single most important strategy to beat the market is to buy great companies at relatively fair prices and hold them for decades. That strategy grounded in keeping commission costs low, deferring taxes, and compounding returns in my mind has never been arbitraged nor properly priced for long periods of time. To what extent is the Gorilla Game already reflected in particular G&K-type stocks? Noting my bias of above, I think it's been very little. Due to the current market correction, there will be a lot of people who got burned over a short period of time who will never play the game again. That's the nature of corrections. They don't just alter stock prices, they also alter many investors' way of looking at things. --Mike Buckley

To: Joshua Corbin who wrote (35355)	11/27/2000 10:05:19 AM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

any strategy for beating the market will be eventually arbitraged -- or gets priced into the equities involved....To what extent is the Gorilla Game already reflected in particular G&K-type stocks? Good, crucial question, and one which I've thought a lot about (as have many here). There were some lengthy exchanges on similar topics back around May, I believe, so you might want to poke around in the thread archives for various opinions. My answer is that what will be arbitraged and eliminated is any mechanical strategy. As the debates within this thread and between the thread and Geoffrey Moore have demonstrated, operationalizing (or "implementing," for those like UF who don't like the word "operationalize") the Gorilla Game is a qualitative rather than quantitative endeavor, relying on subjective judgment rather than objective and particularly numerical criteria. Moreover, it requires great discipline to stick too, which is quite uncommon. Sooo....like Buffettesque value investing, it is theoretically possible for many to do it, but in the real world, in real time, few will be able to do it well and stick to it for a long time. Certainly the returns might not be quite as great as they were in the past, given the popularity and widespread dissemination of the basic concepts involved, but the strategy should still pay off for those who know what they're doing and stick to their last. That's why it's not enough just to read the manual, and why the day-to-day discussions on good gorilla game threads are critical supplements. tekboy/Ares@that'sright,takeadvicefromaschmuckwho'sdown75%.com

To: Joshua Corbin who wrote (35355)	11/27/2000 4:57:00 PM
From: Joshua Corbin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

OT those boring old farts who keep repeating that "you cannot predict the market in the short term" are correct. For those curious about such issues, I cooked up an experiment over the holiday weekend: The Monkeys, The Managers and The Market Two portfolios, equally weighted. One has ten randomly selected stocks. The other has ten major mutual funds. The goal is to see who beats the other over time -- and to find out if either outperforms the market For the full explanation: Message 14872765 For the Monkeys' portfolio: siliconinvestor.com For the Mangers' portfolio: siliconinvestor.com After two trading days, the Managers have a 1.3% lead over the Monkeys, but trail SPY by the same amount. We'll see if that holds.