Phone Bloat: Despite Big Spending,
Wireless Technology Is Still Unproven
Manufacturers pile on the features
but power is always a problem.
By H. ASHER BOLANDE
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
November 27, 2000
For all the buzz surrounding third-generation mobile technology, you might think all its
wonders are on our doorstep.
Poor assumption. Though 3G, as it's called, is set for a roll out in some Asian countries by
the middle of next year, engineers are still wrestling with fundamental technical snags that
may initially leave you with a clunkier and less exciting phone that you were banking on. More
on that later.
For most users, the first taste of the mobile Internet will come via a different standard, 2.5G,
an ad-hoc collection of enhancements to existing cell-phone networks.
Despite the slick commercials from Motorola and Nokia, changes brought on by 2.5G are
actually the more profound leap forward. "Two-point-five-G is really the revolutionary phase,
3G is only evolutionary," says Craig Ehrlich, the group managing director of Hong Kong
service provider Sunday Communications. "It is truly the first technology that allows us to
make the wireless Internet consumer-friendly."
Which is a good thing, because even though the 3G unveiling is just around the corner, 2.5G
will be the dominant cell-phone technology for the next two to five years, according to
analysts. Even as late as 2005, the number of 2.5G customers in Asia will be more than triple
the figure for a slower-evolving 3G, according to Nick Ingelbrecht, a regional analyst with the
Gartner Group, a market-research firm.
And though less flashy than 3G, 2.5G has surprising firepower, enough to enable millions of
people to get started e-mailing, gaming, buying and stock-trading on their handset.
Why is 2.5G such a quantum leap? Two reasons: It enables an always-on connection to the
Internet, and makes your phone behave more like a PC.
In countries where GSM (Global System for Mobile communications) is the presiding cellular
standard, 2.5G will arrive in the form of something called GPRS (General Packet Radio
Services). With GPRS, your handheld device for the first time communicates in the language
of the Internet: packet switching, as opposed to circuit switching, which is the system used by
traditional phones. Essentially, that means data can be sent as data, rather than translated
into voice and retranslated into data at the other end, which is the case currently.
From a practical standpoint, that means data is handled far more efficiently and reliably. So
many users will for the first time be able to download and install software programs, like
games, on the fly.
Packet switching is the reason DoCoMo has been able to build up a rich menu of services for
its iMode phone even though its advertised data-transmission speeds are no better than the
almost useless WAP (Wireless Access Protocol) phones that have been on sale since the
beginning of this year.
Despite the utility of 2.5G, Japan has no choice but to leap-frog to 3G. Its older networks are
groaning under current traffic volumes, and so its carriers have to hurry to invest in new
equipment.
Not so for the rest of Asia, where operators have robust GSM networks. Most of them will opt
to upgrade or enhance these networks for 2.5G wireless Internet rather than switch to 3G too
fast, says Greg Tarr, who manages the M-Werks wireless investment fund from Seoul.
Meanwhile, 3G faces a period of teething pains, industry insiders say. Handset manufacturers
are still confounded by basic problems associated with 3G's speed requirements.
To process some two megabits of data per second, a 3G handset has to be more like a
powerful computer than a phone. That creates engineering headaches, like how to put
powerful enough computer chips inside that won't suck any known phone battery dry in
minutes.
The power-consumption dilemma is made worse by 3G's much-hyped ability to provide
streaming video: Color liquid-crystal screens refreshing at a television-quality 25 frames per
second devour electricity on a different scale from today's digital handsets.
The high-revving computer chips required for all this also generate large amounts of heat, and
unlike a PC, a compact mobile device can't incorporate a fan to help keep them cool.
For these reasons, one of Ericsson's recent prototypes -- used as a demonstrator for
carriers like British Telecom -- is a bank of equipment in a specially built vehicle and not a
handset at all, according to a Swedish industry source who requested anonymity. "It's the
size of a truck," he says. Ericsson officials declined to comment.
Sources across the industry predict the phones released for DoCoMo's May launch will lack
the most advanced capabilities associated with 3G, like video on-demand or real-time
videoconferencing.
"The terminals will certainly be more voice-centric," predicts Nokia spokesman Pekka
Isosomppi. "To incorporate other kinds of features, it will take a longer time."
He and counterparts at Motorola say they expect to overcome such technical obstacles by
the time they introduce their own dual-mode 3G models in early- to mid-2002.
DoCoMo will not comment on exact size or battery-life specifications, but says its first round
of 3G handsets should be comparable in size and shape to the iMode.
Eventually, there's no doubt that 3G phones will pack greater power along with the full range
of sophisticated features. But for now, consumers will have incentives to stick with 2.5G,
says UBS Warburg analyst Dylan Tinker. For one, the big manufacturers will have their
attention on 2.5G because that's where the larger numbers of users will be, he says. "As a
result, the prices will be lower."
"With these handsets, it's economies of scale," he says.
Write to H. Asher Bolande at hyam.bolande@awsj.com |
