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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Venkie who wrote (19729)	11/27/2000 11:35:39 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 65232

dont expect Fed neutral bias in Dec19th FOMC if they yield, they appear to be influenced by public opinion and market pressure that would undermine their inherent staunchly held independence but they will tone down the hawkish comments we have seen little or no relief in labor markets that is their primary focus of attention unemploymt applications rose only slightly last week unemploymt rate is still under 4% they wont ease until it is back over 4% their broken Phillips Curve is still dictating policy but... downward revised Q3 GDP figures will shock the Fed it came in estimated at 2.7% below estimates it gets revised very soon, maybe later this week (unsure) if it gets revised close to 2.0%, then LOOK OUT the Fed has a quandary now they declare the speed limit at 3.0% for GDP anything lower is a warning of excessive slowing but... even as the economy is slowing, unemploymt remains under 4% if the Federal Reserve doesnt cut rates in Q1 next year then GDP qtrly might go under 1% in Q1 and unemploymt might get quickly to 4.5% unfortunately, THAT MIGHT BE WHAT THE FED WANTS / JW