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To: Didi who wrote (4734)11/28/2000 9:13:46 AM
From: Didi  Respond to of 6531
 
S&P: "Don't Get Caught Up in the Negativism"

personalwealth.com

>>>Monday November 27, 2000 (09:09 am ET)

Don't Get Caught Up in the Negativism

By Arnie Kaufman, Editor, The Outlook

NEW YORK, Nov. 27 (Standard & Poor's) -

Guard against the inclination to sell. We continue to believe that a bottom is forming. We would be earmarking attractive values for purchase soon.

Significant turnarounds occur when it appears that all defenses against a slide have broken down.
Fundamentals are called into question and technical support levels fail to hold.
Fear overwhelms reason and what seems like good news is interpreted as bad.

We now seem to be close to that point of despair, thanks to a long and painful series of failed rallies, the crumbling one-by-one of the pillars of the information age sector, heavier-than-usual tax selling and analysts' tendency to pile on in a sliding market via ranking downgrades.

Resolution of the presidential impasse, which still wasn't in sight as we wrote this last Wednesday because of the holiday, won't by itself turn the tide, especially since doubts will continue regarding the validity of the outcome. But settlement either way should provide at least a modest boost.

Fourth-quarter earnings pre-announcements, already starting to trickle in because of the recent change in disclosure rules, are unlikely to create a great deal of enthusiasm. They should, nevertheless, help calm concerns about a broad profit slump.

It would be nice to see the Fed declare victory against inflation. For it to do so in the face of continued labor market tightness and elevated energy prices, however, would be risky. Investors should view continued vigilance as in the economy's and their own best long-term interest.

Oil and gas prices, though up sharply this year, appear to be leveling off. The country's huge current account deficit is balanced for now by the strong trend of capital inflow. Credit quality deterioration, while a concern, should prove manageable. Stock valuations have moderated. Lower P/Es won't suddenly prompt buying, but they will support a recovery once it develops.<<<