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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (85946)11/27/2000 7:16:17 PM
From: TRINDY  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
Wayne, Thanks for asking. I wish I had an answer as to what such a negative reading for the Nasdaq means in relation to the next two months. I was surprised to see it that low, -23.9% relative to the 200 day exponential moving average. I am equally surprised that we didn't get the Xmas rally, as yet. Mike was thinking the Xmas lies would carry the day for a while. I'm not so sure any more. There seems to be a little reality slipping into this market after repeated blows to the head. Finally I see newletter writers like Dohmen, who has been consistently bullish, turning very sour on the market. I think we will look upon the years 1998-2000 historically as a market mania, with stock prices rising to unsupportable heights. I still think we are highly overvalued, which I think is your opinion, too. The year-over-year comparisons will remain tough for some time and we are only a week or so away from earnings preannouncements. I simply don't see impulses that will move this market higher. On top of earnings problems, the economy seems to be slipping fast. Every day we seem to take a new promising technology sector down. I see a lot of reasons to be on the sidelines.

But, a contrarian would look at that 23.9% figure and say it is time for it to turn around. Indices have in the past from these levels. Well, maybe so, but I would counter that we haven't had much experience with manias, and down 23.9% may only be starters. Settlement of the presidential issue may provide a temporary spark. Today, however, showed that that spark may not ignite a fire.

BWDIK. I've been wrong before. Will be again.

P.S. Thanks for your illuminating comments on this thread.

Cheers!