To: hdrjr who wrote (80150 ) 11/27/2000 5:12:48 PM From: excardog Respond to of 95453 API Sneak Preview: Runs Up; Crude, Gasoline, Distillates Lower Nov. 27-MAR-- By John Troland, BridgeNews Houston--Nov. 27--Inventories of crude oil are expected to have fallen 0.8 to 1.3 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks are expected to have also declined 0.9 to 1.2 million barrels, according to brokers and analysts. Distillate fuels are expected to have fallen 0.4 to 0.8 million barrels, while refinery runs are seen higher by 0.4 to 0.8 percentage points of capacity. * * * American Petroleum Institute data are due out after 1600 ET Tuesday, while U.S. Department of Energy data are due at 0900 ET Wednesday. Following are expectations for inventories for the week ended Nov. 24. The ranges reflect the average of the most popular forecasts gathered from brokers and analysts. Forecast change Previous week (ended Nov. 17) --------------- --------------------------- Crude oil Dn 0.8-1.3 mln bbls 290.646 million barrels Gasoline Dn 0.9-1.2 mln bbls 193.514 million barrels Distillates Dn 0.4-0.8 mln bbls 115.217 million barrels Refineries Up 0.4-0.8% point 92.7% of capacity CRUDE: Analysts surveyed said they expect crude stockpiles to fall even as imports are likely to rise from the previous week's 8.1 million barrels per day. "Last week's numbers didn't make much sense," one broker said, " so I expect a moderate adjustment in last week's data. "The previous week's data showed a more than 6.0 million barrel increase in inventories while imports and runs were little changed from the previous week's data," he said. One analyst suggested that the reason that last week's inventories increased while there was little change in the week-to-week data was that crude that was being delivered from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was replacing foreign crude imports. Estimates ranged from a build of 2.0 million barrels to a decline of 3.5 million barrels. GASOLINE Most analysts surveyed projected that stockpiles declined by 0.9-1.2 million barrels due to jobbers and wholesalers taking additional supplies prior to the Thanksgiving holiday. A number of the analysts suggested that implied demand would likely rise to near 9.0 million barrels from the previous week's nearly 8.7 million bpd level. Estimates ranged from down 2.6 million barrels to up 1.6 million barrels. DISTILLATES: Analysts said they expected distillate fuel inventories to decline by 0.4-0.8 million barrels as implied demand is expected to rise 200,000-300,000 bpd from the previous week's 3.9 million bpd level. However, imports are expected to rise above the 400,000 bpd level versus last week's 179,000 bpd level. The increase in imports is expected to mostly negate the higher demand level, a broker said. Distillate estimates ranged from 2.5 million barrels lower to 2.8 million barrels higher. REFINERIES: Refinery runs are expected to have risen 0.4-0.8 percentage points from the previous week's 92.7% of capacity most analysts said. However, a number of those surveyed noted that they had been expecting higher runs for the past few weeks while the data showed just the opposite. "If we are to meet current needs for distillate fuels and gasoline we need to raise crude runs and I think this will happen this week and possibly for the next 3-4 weeks," a broker said. Estimates for refinery runs were 0.3 to 1.0 points higher. End